欧元兑美元汇率下跌
欧元即将创下自欧元区危机达到高潮以来的最弱季度表现,这将让政策制定者感到振奋,因为他们希望抵御通缩威胁、提振不断走弱的欧元区经济。
昨日,欧元兑美元汇率在一年多以来首次跌至1欧元兑1.28美元以下,相对于7月初的水平下跌了6.6%。照目前的趋势,欧元兑美元汇率将创下自2011年秋人们对欧元区崩溃的担忧情绪达到顶峰以来,幅度最大的季度下跌。
欧元贬值源于欧洲央行(ECB)自6月起采取了激进举措来放宽货币政策,包括本月的降息,以及宣布将开始购买私营部门资产。
不过,欧元兑美元汇率下跌还反映出了美元的回升,后者近几周来表现强劲——美联储(Fed)的量化宽松计划即将告终,投资者则在关注美国在2015年加息的前景。
欧洲央行行长马里奥•德拉吉(Mario Draghi)在电视上发表讲话称:“汇率的变化反映出欧洲相对于其他重要国家在货币政策方面的不同路线。”他说,欧洲央行仍将“在相当长的时间内”维持宽松的货币政策,“而其他国家的货币政策或许会逐渐反映出它们正在出现的复苏”。
美联储强调,其货币政策路线将识经济数据情况而定。美联储已暗示可能不迟于明年年中加息,但外汇和债券市场目前的预期是不迟于明年3月加息,前提是美国经济增长势头加速。(更多资讯请关注中国进出口网)
Euro weakness strengthens hand of ECB policy makers
The single currency fell below $1.28 to the dollar for the first time in more than a year yesterday, taking its losses against the greenback since the start of July to 6.6 per cent. That puts it on course for its steepest quarterly fall since the autumn of 2011, when fears of the currency bloc imploding were at their height.
The depreciation stems from the radical steps taken by the European Central Bank to loosen monetary policy since June, including this month’s cuts in interest rates and the announcement it would start buying private sector assets.
But it also reflects a rally in the dollar that has gained momentum in recent weeks as the US Federal Reserve nears the end of its quantitative easing programme and investors look to the prospect of US interest rates rising in 2015.
“The exchange rate movement reflects the different path of monetary policies in Europe versus the monetary policies in other important countries,” Mario Draghi, ECB president, told broadcasters. The ECB’s monetary policy would remain loose “for an extended period of time while other countries monetary policies may gradually acknowledge that recovery is taking place in their countries,” he said.
The Fed has stressed the course of its monetary policy will be determined by economic data. The Fed has hinted at possible rate rises by the middle of next year, but the currency and bond markets are pricing in an increase by March, if the US economy gathers momentum. (更多资讯请关注中国进出口网)