对于能促进2015年经济结构调整的快速政策改革,经济学家和分析人士目前关注七个领域。今年这些领域很有可能助推世界第二大经济体。
内需活跃。前摩根士丹利首席经济学家斯蒂芬·罗奇称:“2015,中国能抑制经济减速所产生的不利影响,同时不会造成可怕的硬着陆。内需将以前所未有的方式活跃起来。”
石油顺势。高盛集团前亚洲区副主席肯尼斯·柯蒂斯认为,石油和其他大宗商品价格暴跌使中国成为“大赢家”。中国可以省下买石油、煤炭和天然气的钱,便宜地增加战略能源储备。
能源市场变化。美国企业研究所学者史剑道表示,油价冲击也为能源市场化改革提供了“绝佳契机”。中国可能会采取措施,通过减少或取消补贴的方式,提高能源行业的效率。
户籍改革。苏格兰皇家银行中国区首席经济学家高路易说,中小城镇户籍制度的放开和福利改革有助于降低预防性储蓄,并刺激消费。
私有化浪潮。德意志银行称,地方政府寻求卸下资产,这可能会掀起一轮私有化。该银行驻香港经济学家张智威和奥德蕾·史(音)称:“这应该有助于促进生产力,改善增长前景。”
外部环境有利。高盛集团称,中国想要引入市场化改革,2015年会有更有利的环境,因为发达国家经济广泛复苏会促进出口。(中国进出口网)
Economists and analysts currently focus on seven areas with regard to the factors that can promote economic restructuring policy reforms. This year these areas are likely to boost the world's second largest economy.
Active domestic demand. Stephen Roach, former chief economist from Morgan Stanley said, in 2015, China could inhibit the adverse effects arising from the economic slowdown, not causing a terrible hard landing, because domestic demand would be active in an unprecedented way.."
Homeopathic oil price trend. Former vice chairman of Goldman Sachs Asia Kenneth Curtis believed that oil and other commodity prices slump made China a "big winner". China could procure oil, coal and gas at a lower price and increase strategic energy reserves easily.
Energy market changes. Derek Scissors, a scholar at American Enterprise Institute said the oil price trend also provided a "great opportunity" in the process of energy market reform. China might take measures to reduce or eliminate subsidies and improve the efficiency of the energy industry.
Census register reform. Luis Kuijs, Chief China economist at Royal Bank of Scotland, said that welfare reform and the liberalization of small towns census registration system could help reduce precautionary savings and stimulate consumption.
Privatization wave. Deutsche Bank said the local government sought to remove the assets, which could set off a privatization. Zhang Zhiwei and Audrey, Hong Kong-based economists of the bank said, this should help boost productivity and improve growth prospects."
Advantageously external environment. Goldman Sachs said that China wanted to introduce market-oriented reforms, in 2015 there would be a more favorable environment in 2015, because the recovery of extensively developed economies would promote exports.