华盛顿（市场观查者）—美国经济2014年迎来了自二战后最曲折的复苏而且年末能源方面又遇到了大的波折，但是2015年美国经济将披荆斩棘变得更好。
下面是消费者和投资者在2015年也许可以期盼的5个好消息。
经济增长率将会首次达到3%在这十年里
美国在2014年的新增工作岗位被设定为300万个—这是自1999年以来最大的增加量。新增工作岗位的增加预计在2015年将会对得到持续，这将确保消费者支出得到持续的动力；同时汽油价格的下降也将为家庭支出节省额外的开支用以购买其他的商品和服务。详见：汽油价格在2014年下降美国将会节省140亿美元开支。
消费支出的上涨反过来促使了更多的租赁和投资以跟上上涨的销量。使美国经济自2005年来经济增长率首次达到3%以上。
Bernard Baumohl 作为Economic Outlook Group的首席经济学家，表示他甚至更乐观的认为接下来的两年将会成为至少近十年以来形势最好的两年，他还称“有很多证据充分的表明了经济正在恢复的势头”。
也许经济增长率是否能达到3%的国内最大威胁是利率的突然调整，但是从各方面的预测来看鸽派的美联储在2015年不太可能会采用挑衅的利率策略。
在数年的停滞之后薪酬将会加速提升
过去4年里束缚经济增长的主要因素就是停滞不前的薪酬水平。时薪年平均增长率仅为2%—仅有过去美国长期薪酬增长率的三分之二。
尽管随着租赁成本的上升和失业率的下降，薪酬最终会会上升；商人们将会在招聘劳动力上付出更多的成本而且还有可能由于缺乏员工以增加产量而导致销售量下降的风险。
“我去的每一个地方，都发现企业主对未来的需求量有一个很好的预期，” Gus Faucher PNC金融服务机构的资深经济学家称。“商人必须提高薪酬来吸引更多的劳动力或者保留原有的工人”。
市场已经做出了回应：2014年9月份的工作空缺岗位在过去14年里达到了最高的水平，还有另一个能说明问题的数字人们辞职的速度达到了过去五年里的新高，调查显示人们辞职后通常立即换了一份薪酬更高的工作。
失业率的大幅下降的实际效果将会有所体现
在过去三年失业率已从8.6%降至5.8%，但是包括美联储，几乎没有人认为劳动力市场现在是真的健康。
大约一千八百万人，想要得到一个好的全职工作，但却没能找，这一数字在金融危机过后五年半左右的恢复时间中是高得不寻常的，而且尽管失业时间在半年及以上的人数大幅下降，然而这个数字仍然比2007年7月金融危机发生之前的任何时候都要高。
失业率减幅在2015年的下降得可能不会那样的迅速，据经济学家所言，特别是如果更多的人进入劳动力市场由于更容易找到工作。尽管如此和2014年相似的大量招聘和录用将会使低的失业率数据显得更加的可信。
Faucher说“在2015年年底我们的失业率大致会处在5%到5.5%之间，而且会让我们更加实际的感受到这一点”。
剧烈动荡石油产量—随着更加缓慢增长的世界经济—造成了原油价格从2013年100美元一桶到2014年年末的几乎50美元一桶的大幅下降，而在美国国内2014年初却造成了通货膨胀的相反影响
也许同等重要的是，稳定或者下降的油价将会缓解通货膨胀压力使美国工人的工资更具有购买力。Renaissance Macro经济学家Neil Dutta 称“这对于国内需求来说是一个明确的积极的消息，人们将会有更多可以用来消费的钱”。
就算油价在2015年有可能反弹，但是油价几乎不可能再短期内回到100美元一桶，除非在世界主要产油地区发生广泛的地缘政治危机。所以这份礼物将在2015年得到持续并且长久的促进美国经济的加快复苏。
为保证更快的经济增长就必须要要消除美联储所担忧的另一个恶魔：通货紧缩，或者说价格下降。Baumohl称“经济增长达到3%以上，并且自90年代以来新增了大量工作的国家发生通货紧缩几乎是不可能的”。
美国经济将会表现得更好就算世界上其他地区没能做到
全球缓慢的经济增长并不会很大程度的拖累美国。美国的出口额虽然可能持平甚至下降，但是这将会被由于油价下降的石油进口额抵消，所以贸易赤字并不会给美国经济造成更进一步的影响。
尽管外贸额占经济总量的比重逐渐增大，但是相比那些每天都大量采购各种日用品，食品而且随意采纳金融方面建议的欧洲和亚洲的主要竞争者，美国经济更容易免受外部不良因素的冲击，实际上相比与外国的竞争者具有更好的抵御危机的能力。
总的来说：世界最大经济体任然可以入常运转就如同沙漠中的绿洲就算有末世预言宣称那样的日子已经远去了。（中国进出口网）
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The U.S. economy finally got a big jolt of energy in 2014 afterthe lamest recovery since World War II. And 2015 is shaping up to be an even better year.
Here are five things consumers and investors can count on (probably) in 2015:
The economy will grow 3% for the first time in 10 years
The U.S. is set to add nearly 3 million jobs in 2014 — the biggest increase since 1999. Theburst in job creation, expected to continue in 2015, is sure to fuel consumer spending. So,too, will a plunge in gasoline prices that's given households extra cash to spare on othergoods and services. See: Americans saved $14 billion as gasoline prices declined in 2014.
The pickup in consumption in turn will entice businesses to hire and invest more to keep upwith rising sales. The result: The U.S. is likely to grow more than 3% for the first time since2005.
Bernard Baumohl, chief global economist of the Economic Outlook Group, said he is even moreoptimistic. "The next two years could be the best two we have seen in at least a decade," hesaid. "There is clearly a lot of evidence the economy is gaining a lot of momentum."
Perhaps the biggest domestic threat to the 3% growth scenario would be a surprisingly swifthike in interest rates, but from all indications a dovish Federal Reserve is unlikely to takeaggressive action in 2015.
Wages will finally accelerate after years of stagnation
One of the main shackles on the economy over the past four years has been stagnant wages.Hourly earnings have risen an average of 2% annually — just two-thirds of the long-term U.S.average.
Yet that's finally about to change. With hiring up and unemployment falling, businesses willhave to go the extra mile for employees or risk losing sales to competitors because they lackenough staff to boost production.
"Everywher I go business owners are seeing an increase in demand," said Gus Faucher, senioreconomist at PNC Financial Services. "Businesses will have to raise wages to attract or maintainworkers."
Businesses are already responding: Job openings in November hit the second highest level in 14years. In another telltale sign, people are quitting jobs at the fastest rate in five years. Researchshows that people who quit one job for another typically do so because they are offered higherpay.
The sharp decline in unemployment will start to seem real
The unemployment rate has plunged over the past three years to 5.8% from 8.6%, butalmost nobody, including the Federal Reserve, thinks the labor market is really that healthy.
Some 18.1 million people, for example, want a good full-time job but can't find one, anunusually high number 5 1/2 years into a recovery. And despite a sharp decline in the numberof people out of work six months or longer, that figure is still higher than at any time beforethe 2007-09 recession.
The unemployment rate probably won't fall quite as rapidly in 2015, according to economists,especially if more people enter the labor force because jobs are easier to find. Yet another largespate of hiring similar to the gain in 2014 would make the low unemployment rate morebelievable.
"By the end of next year we will be at the point wher the unemployment rate is between 5%and 5.5%, and it will truly feel legitimate," Faucher said.
Inflation (and deflation) won't rear its ugly head Surging oil production — along with slowerglobal growth — has caused the price of petroleum to collapse from more than $100 a barrellast summer to barely $50 a barrel at the end of 2014. The effect has been to reverse anuptick in U.S. inflation earlier in the year.
Perhaps just as important, stable or falling prices will boost the inflation-adjusted pay of U.S.workers and gives them more bang for their buck. "It's an unambiguous positive forhousehold demand," said Neil Dutta, head of economics at Renaissance Macro Research. "Peoplewill have more money to spend."
While oil prices may rebound in 2015, they almost certainly won't return to $100 a barrel anytime soon, barring a geopolitical crisis in a major petroleum-producing region. So the gift willkeep giving this year and further feed an accelerating U.S. recovery.
Faster growth should also dispel worries about another Fed bogeyman: deflation, or fallingprices. "It's impossible to have deflation in an economy growing 3%-plus and adding the mostjobs since the 1990s," Baumohl said.
The U.S. will perform well even if the rest of the world doesn't
Slow growth around the world won't hurt the U.S. all that much. American exports mightflatten out or even dip, but that would be offset by lower imports of petroleum because ofsinking oil prices. So the trade deficit is unlikely to get further out of whack.
Although foreign trade accounts for a greater share of the economy than ever, the UnitedStates is still more insulated than virtually every major competitor in Europe and Asia. Sucheveryday purchases as haircuts, dry cleaning, financial advice and eating out are virtuallyimmune from foreign competition.
The upshot: The world's largest economy can still function as an oasis in a desert despite theclaims of doomsayers that those days are over.
