德国人从经济反弹中获得的益处超过了美国人从经济复苏中获得的益处,得益于该国在教育和基础设施上的更大投资。
在中国,由于污染和其他因素的影响,经济快速增长只能缓慢转变为整体经济“福祉”,而在亚洲新的增长冠军印度,进步甚至更为迟缓。
上述结论是波士顿咨询公司(Boston Consulting Group,简称BCG)最新研究的其中一些关键成果。该公司试图编制一项衡量经济“福祉”的宽泛指标,超越政策制定者通常使用的国内生产总值(GDP)、通胀和失业率等指标。为此,BCG指数计入健康、教育和基础设施以及GDP增长波动和不平等之类更为不寻常的指标。
该公司的《2015年可持续经济发展评估报告》(2015 Sustainable Economic Development Assessment)包括一些可以预测的结果。在148个经济体的福祉排名中,高居榜首的是挪威。在前十大经济福祉国家中,有5个是北欧国家,而新加坡是唯一的非欧洲国家。
排名垫底的是最近几年饱受战火蹂躏的中非共和国。
但该报告也包含一些发人深省的观察。
BCG报告的作者们写道,美国排名第17位“主要是因为其收入平等方面的疲弱表现”。在10个衡量指标中,美国有8项落后于其他国家,尤其是在基础设施方面。
BCG表示,尽管人们长期认为美国充满了机遇,但结果表明,美国将财富和增长转化为整体福祉的能力低于平均水平。
与德国对比尤其耐人寻味。从2006年到2013年,两国GDP平均增长率均为1.1%(按购买力平价衡量),但德国在将这种增长转化为更全面的经济福祉方面做得更好。
BCG表示,欧洲最大经济体将增长转化为福祉的能力相当于一个平均增长率达到6.2%的经济体,而美国仅相当于增长率为0.5%的经济体。
按购买力平价衡量,中国同期平均增速接近12%,在将迅猛经济增长转化为经济福祉方面总体上做得不错。
然而,中国在148个经济体中仅排名第76位,这主要是因为它在4项单独指标上逊于全球中值:经济稳定性、收入平等度、治理和环境。在BCG评比的所有经济体中,中国的环境得分最低。
研究发现,中国将增长转化为福祉的能力也依然远高于其亚洲竞争对手印度。
按照BCG更为宽泛的经济福祉指标,预计今年经济增速将超过中国的印度,在148个国家中仅排名第110位,落后于危地马拉、加纳和圭亚那等国家。
BCG报告的作者们指出,印度在健康、教育和基础设施以及减少贫困指标上近年有所进步。然而,它在环境、经济稳定性和就业等其他指标上进展仍逊于平均水平。(中国进出口网)
Germans are benefiting more from their economic rebound than Americans are from the US recovery thanks to greater investment in education and infrastructure.
In China, rapid economic growth is being hindered by pollution and other factors and translating only slowly into broader economic “wellbeing” while in India, Asia’s new growth champion, progress has been even slower.
These are some of the key findings of the latest attempt by the Boston Consulting Group to compile a broad measure of economic “wellbeing” that goes beyond the usual metrics of gross domestic product, inflation and unemployment used by policy makers. To do so the BCG index takes into account investment in health, education and infrastructure as well as more unusual measures such as the volatility of GDP growth and inequality.
The consulting group’s 2015 Sustainable Economic Development Assessment includes some predictable results. Topping the list of 148 economies for wellbeing is Norway. Five of the top 10 countries for economic wellbeing are Nordic and Singapore is the only non-European country in the top decile.
At the very bottom of the list lies the Central African Republic, a country devastated by conflict in recent years.
But it also contains some thought-provoking observations.
The US comes in at number 17 “primarily because of its weak showing in income equality”, the BCG report’s authors write. It lags behind the rest of the world in eight of the 10 dimensions measured, particularly in infrastructure.
Despite the longstanding view that the US is a land of opportunity it turns out, according to BCG, that it is below average in its ability to convert both wealth and growth into a broader wellbeing.
The comparison with Germany is particularly striking. Between 2006 and 2013 both recorded an average GDP growth of 1.1 per cent (measured by purchasing power parity). But Germany did a much better job of translating that into a wider economic wellbeing.
The biggest economy in Europe’s ability to convert growth into wellbeing was equivalent, according to BCG, to an economy growing at an average rate of 6.2 per cent. In the case of the US it was equivalent to that delivered by growth of only 0.5 per cent.
China recorded average growth of almost 12 per cent in PPP terms over the period measured, according to BCG, and had done a generally good job of translating the breakneck growth into economic wellbeing.
However, it ranked only 76th out of 148 largely because it fell below the global median in four separate measures: economic stability, income equality, governance and the environment. It had the lowest score of any economy in the BCG rankings with regard to the environment.
China also remained well above Asian rival India in its ability to translate growth into wellbeing, the study found.
India, wher growth is this year expected to overtake that of China, came in just 110th out of 148 on the BCG measure of broader economic wellbeing, putting it behind countries such as Guatemala, Ghana and Guyana.
India has been making progress in health, education and infrastructure and also in poverty reduction, the BCG authors note. It still, however, recorded subpar progress in other dimensions including the environment, economic stability and employment.