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中国经济将有充足动力保增长

China's Economy Has Sufficient Power to Maintain Growth

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核心提示:“在未来5年到10年内,中国经济将有充足的动力保持高速增长”。彼得森国际经济研究所高级研究员尼古拉斯·拉蒂(Nicholas Lardy)日前在参加英国皇家国际问题研究所会议期间向《经济日报》记者表示说。
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“在未来5年到10年内,中国经济将有充足的动力保持高速增长”。彼得森国际经济研究所高级研究员尼古拉斯·拉蒂(Nicholas Lardy)日前在参加英国皇家国际问题研究所会议期间向《经济日报》记者表示说。

拉蒂首先明确表示,自己对于中国经济的增长持高度乐观态度,并对此具有坚定的信心。拉蒂说,在中国过去的改革历程中,市场在资源配置中的作用不断提升。其中最值得关注的现象就是私营企业的快速发展和崛起。从改革开放初期到现在,私营企业部门不仅经历了从无到有的发展,更是在体量和质量上快速崛起。当前,私营企业已经成为中国经济增长、就业提升和投资增量增加的主要来源。他认为这是中国经济成功不可或缺的因素。尽管当前中国经济开始进入结构调整时期,但是私营企业的发展趋势并没有发生变化,反而得到了一定程度的增强。这将为中国未来经济增长提供动力和支持。

就未来中国私营经济的发展,拉蒂认为当前中国政府的经济改革为其提供了巨大的空间和激励。首先,中国政府进一步放宽了私营企业建立的门槛。拉蒂认为,中国政府已经简化了在中国开设公司的行政程序,同时取消了公司最低注册资本限制。中国政府在减少行政审批和鼓励私营企业发展方面作了大量的政策调整和改革,这为私营经济的进一步快速发展提供了宽松的政策环境。受此影响,在过去两年中,新注册的私营企业开始在中国大量出现。

与此同时,随着中国经济体制改革在“发展混合所有制经济”上发力,私营企业的发展空间也将得到进一步拓展。拉蒂认为,当前中国国有企业在能源、金融和电信等部门占据了重要的地位,但是这一形势正在发生有利于私营企业的变化。目前,越来越多的产业部门开始向私营部门开放。拉蒂也在记者采访前的讲座中特别强调中国私营企业巨大的发展空间。未来私营企业的快速发展将进一步有效提升经济要素的配置效率、资本回报率和国企效率。这也就意味着未来中国经济的总体劳动生产率和产出总量将会明显提升。

拉蒂强调,在过去30多年的改革进程中,中国政府不断提升市场在资源配置中的作用,当前中国仍在继续此前的改革进程。在私营企业资本回报率和生产效率明显提升的背景下,改革为私营部门的发展提供了动力和空间。因此,中国有能力维持劳动生产率和各经济部门效率的提升势头,中国不仅不会陷入所谓的“中等收入陷阱”,反而会在未来新一轮中高速增长之后进入高收入国家行列。(中国进出口网

"In the next five to ten years, the Chinese economy will have sufficient power to maintain rapid growth." Nicholas Lardy, a Senior Fellow from Peterson Institute for International Economics, recently told the "Economic Daily" reporter when participating in the British Royal Institute of International conference.

First Lardy made clear that he hold a highly optimistic attitude on China's economic growth. Lardy said that in China’s former reform process, market plays a more important role in the allocating resources. One of the most noteworthy phenomenon is the rapid development of the private sector. From the beginning of reform and open, the private sector developed from scratch, and rapidly increase in terms of volume and quality. Currently, the private sector has become the main source of China's economic growth, employment and investment increase. He believes this is an indispensable factor in China's economic success. Although the current Chinese economy entered a period of structural adjustment, but the development trend of the private sector has not changed, instead, its development has been enhanced to some degree. This will provide the impetus and support for China's future economic growth.

On the future development of China's private economy, Lardy believed that the current government's economic reform in China provided a huge space and incentives. First, the Chinese government further lowered the threshold of private enterprise establishment. Lardy believed that the Chinese government has not only simplified the administrative procedures to create a company in China, but canceled the limitation of a company's minimum registered capital. The Chinese government made a lot of policy adjustments and reforms to reduce administrative examination and approval, and encourage private sector development, which provided a favorable policy environment for the further rapid development of the private economy. Affected by this, in the past two years, a large number of newly registered private enterprises began to emerge in China.

Meanwhile, as China has made efforts to "Develop Mixed Ownership Economy", private sector development space will also be further expanded. Lardy believed that the current Chinese state-owned enterprises occupy important position in the energy, financial and telecommunications sectors, but this is changing and the change is favorable to the private sector. At present, more and more industrial sectors began to open to the private sector. Lardy also told the reporter in an interview that Chinese Private Enterprises had huge space for development. The rapid development of the private sector in the future will further enhance allocative efficiency of the economic factors, the return on capital and the efficiency of state-owned enterprises. This means that the total output of China's economy and overall labor productivity will be significantly enhanced in the future.

Lardy stressed that in the reform process over the past 30 years, the Chinese government continued to enhance the role of market in resource allocation, China's still in the reform process currently. under the circumstances that the private sector’s ROI and production efficiency has been improved significantly, the reform provides power and space for the development of the private sector. Therefore, China has the ability to maintain labor productivity and efficiency of all economic sectors, China won’t fall into the so-called "middle income trap", but will enter the ranks of high-income countries, after a new round of rapid growth in the future.
 

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