周三发布的数据显示,随着痛苦的再平衡过程缓缓向前推进,中国消费者正一步步地从经济增长的两个传统引擎——制造业和房地产业——那里接过接力棒。
今年第三季度,制造业和建筑业的放缓把中国国内生产总值(GDP)的同比增速拉低至6.9%,为2009年以来的最低水平。最新数据显示,这两个行业仍未见底。
中国国家统计局数据显示,今年1月至10月,全国城镇固定资产投资同比增长10.2%,为2000年来最慢增速,也是连续第17个月放缓。作为制造业的衡量指标之一,10月份的工业增加值的同比增速为5.6%,与今年4月创下的6年低点持平。
消费者帮助挽回了颓势(双十一这天,有大批中国消费者出手购物)。10月份,社会消费品零售总额同比增长11%,为今年最快增速。中国汽车工业协会(CAAM)数据显示,10月份乘用车销量也增长强劲,同比增加13.3%,至190万辆,增速为17个月来最快。
房地产对固定资产投资增长的拖累最显著。10月份,房地产投资同比增速放缓至2%,为2004年开始统计该数据以来的最低水平。经历了一年的下滑后,住房销量和价格在近几个月都开始回升,但鉴于未售存量房依然积压,开发商们正在推迟建造新屋。
中国政府增加了财政支出,希望填补投资缺口。今年1月至10月,地方政府固定资产投资同比增长了10.6%。
经济学家预期,宽松性政策(包括自去年11月以来6次降息)将帮助中国经济增长在今年余下的时间里企稳。
钢、铜和水泥等基础大宗商品价格走低,加剧了固定资产投资和工业产值增速的放缓。经通胀调整后,今年1月至10月,工业增加值同比增长了6.1%,但这仍是自2009年初以来的最慢增速。(中国进出口网)
China’s consumers are gradually picking up the baton from the traditional economic engines of manufacturing and real estate, data released on Wednesday show, as the painful rebalancing process inches ahead.
The slowdown of factory activity and construction pushed Chinese gross domestic product growth to its lowest annual pace since 2009 in the third quarter at 6.9 per cent, and the latest data suggest these sectors have not yet bottomed out.
Urban fixed-asset investment grew at an annual rate of 10.2 per cent in the first 10 months of the year, the slowest pace since 2000 and the 17th straight month of declines, according to the statistics bureau. Industrial production, a gauge of the manufacturing sector, matched the six-year low of 5.6 per cent annual growth touched in April.
Shoppers, out in force for Singles Day, helped take up the slack. Retail sales grew 11 per cent in October, the swiftest annual rate this year. Passenger car sales also grew strongly, rising by 13.3 per cent to 1.9m units in October, the fastest pace in 17 months, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers.
Property was the biggest drag on fixed-asset investment, with real estate investment dipping to 2 per cent, the slowest pace since data began in 2004. Home sales and prices have begun to creep higher in recent months following a year of declines, but developers are delaying new construction in the face of unsold inventory gluts.
Beijing has ramped up fiscal spending to fill the gap. Fixed-asset investment by local governments rose 10.6 per cent in the year to October.
Economists expect easing measures, including six interest rate cuts since last November, to help stabilise growth through the rest of the year.
Lower-priced basic commodities such as steel, copper and cement exaggerate the deceleration in growth of fixed investment and industrial output. In inflation-adjusted terms, industrial production grew 6.1 per cent in October, although that is still the weakest pace since early 2009.