在中国再次推出降息举措后,炼钢重要原料铁矿石价格在最近的这轮激动人心的涨势中继续攀升。中国这次降息是6个月内第三次降息,试图进一步支撑其放缓的经济。
根据钢铁指数公司(The Steel Index)的价格评估,即期中国到岸澳大利亚基准铁矿石价格周一上涨2美元,达到每吨62.5美元,涨幅3%。自4月初铁矿石跌至每吨46.7美元的6年半内最低点以来,如今铁矿石价格已激增近35%。
中国是海运铁矿石的最大消费国,其购买量占全球供应量的比例约为三分之二。最近这次降息应该会降低借贷成本,减轻中国负债累累的钢铁制造商的压力。
中国港口库存的下滑、以及近期炼钢厂在夏季需求高峰期前大举买入的行为,是铁矿石价格近期复苏的主要推动因素。
此外,在四大海运铁矿石生产商中,必和必拓(BHP Billiton)、Fortescue metals Group及淡水河谷(Vale)这三家都曾暗示,它们可能会愿意调整铁矿石产量。最近几年,铁矿石产量已急剧增长,超过了已然减弱的需求。
不过,许多分析师预计,除非中国需求回升或主要生产商真正致力于降低供应量,这轮复苏行情不会持续下去,铁矿石价格将会下跌。(中国进出口网)
Iron ore, the key ingredient in steelmaking, has extended its recent breathtaking rally after China cut interest rates for a third time in six months in a further attempt to shore up its slowing economy.
Benchmark Australian ore for immediate delivery into China rose $2, or 3 per cent, to $62.50 a tonne on Monday, according to a price assessment from The Steel Index. Iron ore has now surged almost 35 per cent since sinking to a six and a half year low of $46.70 in early April.
China is the biggest consumer of seaborne iron ore, purchasing around two-thirds of the world’s supplies. The latest rate cut should lower borrowing costs and ease the pressure on the country’s heavily indebted steelmakers.
A decline in Chinese ports stocks and a late buying spree by steel mills restocking ahead of the peak summer demand period have been the key drivers of the recent recovery in iron ore prices.
In addition, three of the four largest seaborne producers — BHP Billiton, Fortescue metals Group and Vale — have all suggested they might be willing to adjust production volumes, which have surged in recent years and overwhelmed weaker demand.
However, many analysts do not expect the recovery to last and believe prices will fall unless Chinese demand picks up or there is a real commitment to cut supply on the part of major producers.