唐熙华表示，禁止俄罗斯能源集团进入资本市场并限制它们获得西方石油技术，最终将导致俄罗斯对石油生产的投资下降，从而损害长期供应。他说，美国页岩油气繁荣掩盖了日益增长的全球供应不足的风险，但这种效果将会消退，让全球经济危险地暴露于石油供应可能中断的风险。
唐熙华发表此言之际，美国和欧洲上周五扩大了对俄罗斯的制裁，其中美方将欧洲主要能源提供商俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司(Gazprom)和私营石油集团卢克石油公司(Lukoil)列入不能利用美国商品、技术和服务开发深水、北极海域和页岩项目的制裁名单。欧盟和美国还对一些俄罗斯国有能源集团的融资施加限制。
唐熙华在接受英国《金融时报》采访时表示：“美国的局面使世界产生了一种错误的安全感。”他指出，页岩繁荣推动美国原油产量自2008年以来猛增60%，但他问道：“当美国供应见顶回落的时候，新的供应将来自何处？”
随着成熟油田的产量下降，世界寄望于加拿大、伊拉克和俄罗斯等地增加石油供应。但唐熙华表示，俄罗斯在北极未开发资源和西伯利亚页岩油气储量的开采受到制裁的威胁，“由于金融上的制裁，这些大型集团将开始削减它们的活动”。
目前执掌石油勘探公司Genel Energy、并担任大宗商品交易商嘉能可(Glencore)董事长的唐熙华，还对伊拉克石油产量大幅增长的预测提出质疑。他说，伊拉克将很难实现到2020年产量翻倍的目标。
制裁可能危及俄罗斯国有控股的俄罗斯石油公司(Rosneft)和埃克森美孚(ExxonMobil)等西方石油巨头为勘探俄罗斯北极海域而成立的合资公司。巴克莱(Barclays)分析师迈克尔•科恩(Michael Cohen)表示，制裁也可能让欧洲石油集团和服务公司更难为它们当前在俄罗斯的运营提供支持。
（更多全球资讯请关注中国进出口网）
US and EU sanctions against Moscow are in danger of turning round and biting the west by constraining global oil supply and pushing up prices, the former chief executive of BP haswarned.
Tony Hayward said that cutting Russia’s energy groups off from capital markets and restrictingtheir access to western oil technology would eventually lead to less investment in Russian oilproduction and damage long-term supply. He said the US shale boom had obscured thegrowing risks to the world’s supply but its effect would wear off, leaving the global economydangerously exposed to potential disruptions in the flow of oil.
He spoke as the US and Europe expanded sanctions against Russia on Friday, with the USadding Gazprom, Europe’s leading energy provider, and Lukoil, the privately owned oil group, tothe companies deprived of US goods, technology and services for deep water, Arctic offshoreand shale projects. The EU and US have also imposed restrictions on financing for somestate-owned Russian energy groups.
“The world has been lulled into a false sense of security because of what’s going on in the US,”Mr Hayward said in an interview with the Financial Times, referring to the shale boom that hasdriven a 60 per cent rise in US crude output since 2008. But he asked: “When US supplypeaks, wher will the new supply come from?”
As output from mature basins declines, the world has banked on new barrels from places suchas Canada, Iraq and Russia. But Russian production from untapped resources in the Arctic andshale reserves in Siberia are threatened by sanctions, he said. “Because of financial sanctions,the big gorillas are going to start cutting their activities.”
Mr Hayward, who runs oil explorer Genel Energy and is chairman of commodities groupGlencore, also questioned projections for a big increase in oil production from Iraq. He said thecountry would struggle to reach targets to double production by 2020.
Sanctions could endanger joint ventures that Rosneft, the state-controlled Russian oilgroup, has set up with western majors such as ExxonMobil to explore in Russia’s Arctic seas.Michael Cohen, an analyst at Barclays, said they could also make it harder for European oilgroups and service companies to provide support for their current operations in Russia.
（更多全球资讯请关注中国进出口网）
