经合组织：全球经济前景恶化

经合组织(OECD)昨日表示，对苏格兰独立公投以及中东和乌克兰冲突的担忧损害了世界经济前景。
经合组织在一份报告中表示，全球几乎所有大型经济体在2014年和2015年的经济前景都有所恶化，部分原因是今年初的一次性情况打击增长，还有部分原因是地缘政治风险。该报告是经合组织对今年5月发表的经济预测的更新。
这标志着一家国际机构首次警告苏格兰独立公投对全球经济造成的整体后果。
这家总部位于巴黎、监测发达经济体的机构下调了除印度以外的所有大型经济体在2014年的增长预期。
它预计美国增长2.1%，欧元区增长0.8%，日本增长0.9%，这代表着将每个经济体的增长预期下调了0.3到0.5个百分点。
经合组织对中国的经济增长预期不变，仍为7.4%，同时预计英国增长3.1%，是发达经济体中增长最快的。巴西是增长最低的，预计今年仅增长0.3%，远低于今年5月预期的1.8%。
就2015年而言，经合组织仍预计增长将会加速，尽管它同样下调了预期。
经合组织再次严厉批评了欧元区领导人。它认为欧元区的经济表现“令人失望”，并警告称，“信心再次变弱，通胀下降体现出需求疲弱。整个欧元区的通胀水平接近于零，在多个成员国甚至为负值”。
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Fears of disruption following a Scottish vote for independence and conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine have damaged prospects for the world economy, the OECD said yesterday.
The outlook had darkened for 2014 and 2015 for almost all the world’s large economies, partly as the result of one-off hits to growth early this year and partly stemming from geopolitical risks, the OECD said in an updat to economic forecasts published in May
This marks the first time an international body has warned of the wider consequences to the global economy of a Scottish Yes vote.
The Paris-based organisation, which oversees the advanced economies, revised down its forecasts for 2014 growth for all large economies except India.
It expects growth of 2.1 per cent in the US, 0.8 per cent in the eurozone and 0.9 per cent for Japan, representing downward revisions in each economy of between 0.3 and 0.5 percentage points.
China’s forecast is constant at 7.4 per cent growth, with the UK the fastest growing advanced economy at 3.1 per cent. Brazil is bottom of the league, with only 0.3 per cent growth expected this year, much lower than the 1.8 per cent expected in May.
For 2015, the OECD still hopes that growth rates will pick up, although it has again trimmed most of its forecasts.
The organisation repeated sharp criticism of eurozone leaders. Calling the region’s economic performance “disappointing”, it warned “confidence is again weakening, and the anaemic state of demand is reflected in the decline in inflation, which is near zero in the zone as a whole and negative in several countries”.
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