显示表观石油需求强劲增长的中国数据，昨日驱散全球经济增长放缓和供应过剩的阴影，支撑了布伦特(Brent)原油价格。
9月表观需求（考虑估测的成品油净进口量和炼油厂原油加工量）同比高出7.1%，达到1030万桶/日。这是自2013年6月以来最快的增长速度。
优于预期的数据令人看好炼油厂、工厂和车主的需求。
国际油价基准——伦敦洲际交易所(ICE) 12月交货的布伦特原油价格午后上涨54美分，至每桶85.81美元。交易商们正盼望着全球最大能源消费国的需求出现起色，从而支撑油价。自6月中旬达到大约每桶115美元的高点以来，油价已下跌25%。
“关键问题是，中国能不能在今年余下时间乃至明年保持这种需求增长势头？也就是说，它有没有这个胃口？”法国外贸银行(Natixis)石油分析师阿布舍克•德什潘德(Abhishek Deshpande)表示。
“如果（中国的）石油需求按照当前速度继续增长，他们就能消化掉市场上的过剩供应。”
当前的大背景是，北美石油产量大幅增长，而受到战乱困扰的利比亚和伊拉克维持了产出。与此同时，欧洲和亚洲经济增长乏力，导致需求放缓。这些因素加起来，形成石油过剩的局面。
分析师们正密切关注中国石油企业的库存补充和中国战略石油储备的入库，以判断强劲需求在多大程度上是可持续的。
“价格已经跌得如此之低，以至于中石油(PetroChina)的交易分支中联油(Chinaoil)上周觉得价位已足够低，于是开始从中东买入原油，”能源交易经纪商PVM的戴维•霍夫顿(David Hufton)表示。
但伦敦咨询公司Energy Aspects的阿姆里塔•森(Amrita Sen)表示，这种机会主义的购买在未来可能减弱力度。“最后一个季度的前景仍然更具挑战性。”
鉴于21个亚太经济体的财长将齐聚北京开会，她补充说：“北京将希望不惜代价迎来蓝天。目前华北的雾霾再度达到危险水平，促使北京和环绕该市的河北省的官员们削减工业生产，暂停建设施工。政府还安排了11月初的六天公众假期，以缓解北京的拥堵。这将不可避免地影响到经济活动和石油需求”。
虽然工业产出数据显示出重大起色，但另有数据显示，第三季度中国经济增长放缓至2008-09年金融危机以来的最疲弱水平。
国际货币基金组织(IMF)、国际能源机构(IEA)和欧佩克(Opec)近期先后表示，对全球经济疲弱和需求降低感到担心，这打压了油价。一些能源市场观察人士曾预计，欧佩克在其最大产油国沙特阿拉伯的带头下，将减产维持较高价格。但这个卡特尔迄今并未实行这样的政策。（中国进出口网）
Chinese data showing robust growth in implied oil demand supported the price of Brent crude yesterday, despite the spectre of slowing global growth and excess supplies.
Apparent demand for September, which takes into account estimated net imports of oil products and crude that is processed, was 7.1 per cent higher than the same period a year ago, at 10.3m barrels a day. This is the fastest growth since June 2013.
The better than expected data shed a positive light on the needs of refineries, factories and car owners.
ICE December Brent, the international oil benchmark, rose 54 cents to $85.81 a barrel in afternoon trading. Traders are holding out for a pick-up in demand from the world’s largest energy consumer to support the price of oil, which has fallen 25 per cent since a mid-June high of about $115 a barrel.
“The key question is, can China continue this pace of demand for the rest of the year and into next year – does it have the appetite?” said Abhishek Deshpande, oil analyst at Natixis.
“If oil demand grows at this rate, they can sop up the glut that is out there.”
A boost in North American production has coincided with sustained output from Libya and Iraq, despite the violence in both countries. At the same time demand has slowed amid sluggish economic growth in Europe and Asia, creating an oil surplus.
Stockpiling by Chinese oil companies and the filling up of the country’s strategic petroleum reserve are being watched closely by analysts for a sense of how sustainable demand is.
“Prices have fallen so low that the trading arm of PetroChina, Chinaoil, found last week’s price levels low enough to start buying crude oil from the Middle East,” said David Hufton at broker PVM.
But such opportunistic buying could be weaker in future, said Amrita Sen at London-based consultancy Energy Aspects. “The outlook for the last quarter remains more challenging.”
As a meeting of finance ministers of 21 Asia-Pacific economies draws near, she added: “Beijing will want blue skies at all costs. Smog is once again reaching dangerous levels in northern China, prompting officials in Beijing and neighbouring Hebei province to cut industrial production and suspend construction work. The government also mandated a six-day public holiday in early November to curb congestion in Beijing. This will inevitably impact economic activity and oil demand.”
Although industrial output numbers signalled a big improvement, separate data showed Chinese economic growth easing in the third quarter to its weakest since the 2008-09 financial crisis.
Fears of global economic weakness and reduced demand, as voiced by the International Monetary Fund, the International Energy Agency and Opec, have weighed on the price of oil. Some energy market watchers had expected Opec, led by its largest producer Saudi Arabia, to cut supply in defence of higher prices. But this is a policy the cartel has so far not pursued.
