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量化宽松政策短期有望改善欧洲经济

Quantitative Easing Policy expected to Improve European Economy in Short Term

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核心提示:欧洲央行9日正式开启量化宽松货币政策。对其实施效果和前景,多数分析人士认为,短期将导致欧元下跌利于欧洲出口,但要真正改善欧洲疲弱的经济还需扎实实施的结构性改革。

欧洲央行9日正式开启量化宽松货币政策。对其实施效果和前景,多数分析人士认为,短期将导致欧元下跌利于欧洲出口,但要真正改善欧洲疲弱的经济还需扎实实施的结构性改革。

据欧洲央行的计划,从3月起将每月购买600亿欧元政府与私人债券,该政策预计将持续至2016年9月底。受此影响,欧元持续下探。

欧洲经济持续疲弱是欧洲央行推出量化宽松政策的直接原因。目前欧元区经济增长率不足1%,主要经济体法国、意大利经济接近零增长,多个国家已陷入通缩局面。因此,通过宽松货币政策刺激增长和消费是欧洲央行的政策目标。

在评价欧洲央行宽松货币政策时,欧洲国际政治经济研究中心主任弗雷德里克·埃里克松说,该政策十分必要,是修正过去几年“保守”货币政策的良机。他说:“购债计划的实施有利于短期内化解欧洲低通胀局面,防止通缩风险蔓延,同时也能拉动经济增长率。”

然而部分专家对欧洲量化宽松政策前景并不乐观。中国外汇投资研究院院长谭雅玲表示,执行宽松政策过程中会加剧各国矛盾,各国经济差异会进一步拉大。她说:“德国这样的发达国家发展会越来越好,希腊、塞浦路斯这样的国家会越来越差,这会激化欧元区分裂。如果不解决机制问题、体制问题和市场问题,印钞票是没有用的。”

欧洲经济要实现完全复苏单靠量化宽松政策是不够的。埃里克松指出,全面实施结构性改革、提高区域竞争力,才是欧洲经济长期增长的关键。(中国进出口网

European Central Bank on the 9th Mar. officially introduced the quantitative easing monetary policy. As for the results and prospects of its implementation, most analysts believe that this policy will result in euro decline and will be favor of short-term exports from Europe, but a solid implementation of structural reforms will be needed if the weak economic is improved.

According to the ECB's plan, it will buy 60 billion euros of government and private bonds per month from March to the end of September 2016. Thus, the euro continued to decline.

Continued weakness in the European economy is the direct cause of the ECB's introduction of quantitative easing. Currently economy growth is less than 1% in the euro area economy, in the major economies France and Italy, the economy growth is close to zero, economic growth in many countries has fallen into deflation. Thus, to stimulate growth and consumption by quantitative easing monetary policy is the ECB's policy objectives.

In evaluating the ECB easing monetary policy, director of the International Centre for European Economic Research politics Frederick Eriksson said the policy is necessary, and it’s an opportunity to amend the "conservative" monetary policy in the past few years. He said, "The purchase of debt is in favor of implementation of the plan to resolve the situation in Europe and low inflation in the short term, to prevent the spread of the risk of deflation, but also to stimulate economic growth."

However, some experts are not optimistic on the European QE outlook. President of China Foreign Exchange Investment Research Institute Tan Yaling said, quantitative easing monetary policy will intensify contradictions among the countries, the economic disparities among countries will be widened. She added, "Developed Countries like Germany will be getting better and better, countries like Greece and Cyprus will become increasingly poor, thus intensifying the eurozone splitting. If the mechanism, institutional and market issues aren’t solved, there’s no use to print money. "

To achieve full recovery of the European economy QE alone is not enough. Eriksson pointed out that the full implementation of structural reforms to improve the competitiveness of the region, is the key to long-term economic growth in Europe.
 

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