美元的飙涨预计本周将给美国的一些大型跨国企业造成冲击，原因是有逾五分之一的标普500 (S&P 500)指数成份股企业将陆续发布明显受到美元升值9%影响的季报。
将于周五前发布季报的企业包括IBM、通用汽车(General Motors)、联合技术(United Technologies)、可口可乐(Coca-Cola)和麦当劳(McDonald's)等巨型蓝筹企业。
标普指数今年以来仅上涨1.1%，投资者担心多家企业可能会步通用电气(GE)和菲利普莫里斯(Philip Morris)后尘，这两家公司上周均表示美元走强导致其首季度收入减少近10亿美元。通用电气表示，汇率变动使其利润减少1.2亿美元；菲利普莫里斯表示，这一因素使其“公司营业利润”(operating companies income)减少5.85亿美元。
贝莱德(BlackRock)全球首席投资策略师拉斯•凯斯特里奇(Russ Koesterich)表示，人们现在又开始担心希腊会爆发新的危机，美国最近的经济数据也令人失望，不过，企业利润很可能将成为今年驱动美股的一支关键力量。
他表示：“就2015年而言，决定性因素将是利润情况、以及企业能否克服美元走强的影响。”
迄今为止发布的财报证明，人们最近对不断下跌的能源价格和不断走强的美元的担忧是有道理的，这两者已导致一些人对企业利润预期做出金融危机以来幅度最大的下调。
FactSet预计，标普500指数成份股企业首季度利润将下降4%，收入将减少3%。但它预计那些只有不到一半销售额在美国取得的企业，利润和收入都将下降10%。
去年10月末至今年3月中，美元指数（该指数衡量美元相对一篮子货币的汇率）攀升15%。
欧元相对美元出现自前者1999年诞生以来最大幅度的季度下跌，许多策略师急忙将其所预期的美元与欧元实现平价的日期向前调整，尽管较差的美国经济数据已缓和了这一预期。（中国进出口网）
A surging dollar is expected to hit some of the largest US multinationals this week, as more than a fifth of S&P 500 companies report results for a quarter marked by a 9 per cent jump in their domestic currency.
Blue-chip behemoths such as IBM, General Motors, United Technologies, Coca-Cola and McDonald’s are among those set to release earnings by Friday.
With the S&P up only 1.1 per cent this year, investors are concerned that several companies could emulate General Electric and Philip Morris, which each said last week that the dollar reduced their revenues by nearly $1bn in the first quarter. GE said currency swings hit profits by $120m, and Philip Morris reported a $585m hit to “operating companies income”.
Fears of a new Greek crisis are resurfacing and US economic data has disappointed of late, but corporate earnings are likely to be a key driving force for US equities this year, said Russ Koesterich, global chief investment strategist at Blackrock.
“For 2015, it will come down to earnings and whether companies can overcome a higher dollar,” he said.
Earnings reports so far have validated recent concerns over falling energy prices and a rising dollar that have led to the largest downgrade of earnings estimates since the financial crisis.
FactSet expects first-quarter earnings for the S&P 500 to decline 4 per cent and revenues to dro 3 per cent. But it expects both earnings and revenues to be down 10 per cent for companies that generate less than half their sales in the US.
Between the end of October and mid-March, the dollar index – which measures the greenback against a basket of its peers – climbed 15 per cent .
The euro suffered its biggest quarterly decline against the dollar since it was created in 1999, and many strategists hastily brought forward their target date for the dollar reaching parity with its transatlantic partner, although that expectation has been tempered by poor US economic data.
