在这场货币战争中，新兴市场的央行承担着遭受最大间接伤害的风险。它们的储备——以四大币持有的储备占了大部分——在购买力方面将大幅缩水。一旦这些货币的贬值努力真的生效，整个世界将迫切希望有其他可供选择的货币来作为传统储备货币的替代品。
目前为止，只有一个国家似乎发现了这种形势下蕴藏的机遇，那就是中国。其他国家大多只是心惊胆战地注视着美元走向。
在不太遥远的未来，中国的人民币将成为一种全球储备货币。中国将从中受益匪浅——不仅其货币的稳定性将大大提高，而且中国也将不再需要太多外汇储备。那时超额外汇储备可以用于主权财富基金，包括亚洲基础设施投资银行(AIIB)。最后，中国将可以增加消费，因为它不再需要为了保持高水平的外汇储备而抑制国内需求。
但是，全世界需要更多的新储备货币，而不仅仅是人民币。这意味着，墨西哥、巴西、印度等其他大型新兴市场国家也可以从中国如今正在利用的机遇中获益。凭借合理的规划以及谨慎的政策实施，它们的货币也可以成为全球储备货币。
新兴市场央行的技术专家已经意识到了这些问题，但在说服各自的理事会有必要将储备多元化方面仍面临巨大挑战。这也是中国的行动如此重要的原因。人民币上升为储备货币，将展现出减少四大货币储备、实现储备多元化的巨大好处。随着中国的外汇储备成为真正的“超额”储备，中国很快将不得不抛售美国国债。它很可能会寻求将这部分资金投资在不那么主流的货币上。作为回报，其他新兴市场央行最终将购入人民币。新兴市场每一个主要央行都将外汇储备多元化，不仅将有利于其他新兴市场货币，也将有助于所有新兴国家降低对四大量化宽松(QE)货币的过度敞口。（中国进出口网）
In this currency war, EM central banks risk suffering the most collateral damage. Their reserves – so many of them held in the big four currencies – will be decimated in purchasing power terms. The world will become desperate for alternative currencies to act as replacements for the traditional reserve currencies once their currency debasement efforts really take root.
So far, only one country, China, appears to have spotted the opportunities presented by this situation. Most others merely watch the dollar in fear.
China’s renminbi will become a global reserve currency in the not too distant future. China will benefit enormously from becoming a global reserve currency – not only will its currency become far more stable, but China will also no longer need so many reserves. The excess reserves can then be used for sovereign wealth fund purposes, including the AIIB. Finally, China will be able to increase consumption, because it no longer needs to suppress domestic demand in order to maintain high levels of reserves.
But the world will need more new reserve currencies than just the renminbi. This means that other large EM countries such as Mexico, Brazil, India and others could also benefit from the opportunity that China is now exploiting. With sensible planning and prudent policy implementation, they too can become global reserve currencies.
Technocrats in EM central banks are aware of these issues but face tremendous challenges in convincing their boards of the need to diversify into other currencies. That is why China’s move is so important. The renminbi’s ascent to reserve currency status will demonstrate the huge benefits of diversifying away from the ‘Big Four’ currencies. China will soon have to sell treasuries as its reserves become true ‘excess’ reserves. It is likely to seek to invest the cash in less mainstream currencies. Other EM central banks will ultimately reciprocate by buying renminbi. As each major EM central bank diversifies, not only will it be good for other EM currencies, it will also help all of them to reduce their excess exposures to the ‘Big Four’ QE currencies.
