本月早些时候，中国国家能源局局长吴新雄表示，将2020年页岩气产量目标下调至300亿立方米。相比之下，下调前的目标是600至800亿立方米。虽然页岩气的产量目标被大幅下调，中国要想难实现这个目标还是很难。目前，中国只有一个大型页岩气项目投入了商业化生产，就是中石化在四川涪陵的气田。这家国有企业预计涪陵页岩气产量在2016年和2017年将分别达到50亿立方米和100亿立方米，被认为是中国最有价值的页岩气田。去年，全中国的页岩气总产量只不过是2亿立方米，所以很难想象如何实现2020年的目标，甚至实现2015年总产量达到65亿立方米的目标难度也很大。
在提到页岩气的时候，成本才是关键所在。众所周知，水力压裂和水平钻探技术其实已经诞生 几十年。美国之所以能实现页岩气大繁荣——美国现在不仅是全球最大的天然气生产国，还是最大的碳氢化合物生产国——是因为美国人找出了高效开采的办法。
中国页岩气的生产成本大约是美国的四倍。换言之，它的成本要高出液化天然气价格。北京方面无疑将缩小这一差距，不过这绝不意味着可以确保在中国开采页岩气的经济可行性。中国的领导人似乎更加担心，如何为国有企业保留最好的气田，并确保这些企业可以发展自己的专长，以使利润留在中国人的手里。中石化最大的骄傲就是，其在涪陵的所有生产工具和设备均为国产。
中国页岩气面临的是一种开采成本居高不下而售价却被人为压低的局面。这一切都预示着，中国的技术官僚们将无法实现2020年的目标。(由中国进出口网转载自福布斯中文网)
Earlier this month, Wu Xinxiong, Director General of China's National Energy Bureau, said that shale gas production target in 2020 is reduced to 30 billion cubic meters. In contrast, the goal before the reduction was 60 billion to 80 billion cubic meters. While shale gas production target is significantly reduced, it is still very difficult for China to achieve this goal. Currently, China has only one large project to commercialize shale gas production, Sinopec gas field inFuling, Sichuan Province. Shale gas production in this state-owned enterprises is expected to be 5 billion to 10 billion cubic meters in 2016 and 2017 respectively, which is considered as China's most valuable shale gas field. Last year, all the China's shale gas production is only 200 million cubic meters, so it is hard to imagine how to achieve the 2020 target. Moreover, it is much more difficult to achieve 2015 production goal of 6.5 billion cubic meters.
When referring to shale gas, the cost is the key point. As we all know, hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling technology has already been evented for decades. U.S. shale gas has been able to achieve great prosperity - United States is now not only the world's largest natural gas producer, but also the largest hydrocarbon production country - because Americans find an efficient mining method.
China’s shale gas production cost is about four times than the United States. In other words, its costs are higher than the price of liquefied natural gas. Beijing will undoubtedly narrow the gap, but this in no way means that you can ensure that the conomic viability of economic viability exploitation in China. China's leaders seem to be more worried about how to help state-owned enterprises retain the best field, and ensure that these companies can develop their own expertise to make the profits in the hands of Chinese people. Sinopec is most proud of the fact that all of its production tools and equipment in Fuling are made in China.
China’s shale gas exploitation is faced with a situation that the mining cost is high while the price was artificially lowered. All this indicates that China's technocrats will not be able to achieve 2020 goals.
(Translated by www.chinainout.com)
