按照花旗(Citi)的说法，大宗商品超级周期可能已经结束，但没有经济体可以代替中国成为世界工厂。
从现在开始，对大宗商品的需求将来自一组多元化的地区，包括印度、中东、拉美、非洲、以及东南亚的东盟(ASEAN)国家。
但该行表示，这将不足以弥补中国的放缓，导致全球大宗商品需求增长放缓，全球贸易流量减弱。
花旗表示，全球大宗商品需求增长将显著低于过去十年。其中，受打击最大的将是动力煤、炼钢用的铁矿石以及炼焦煤，原因是它们目前对中国制造业、基建以及房地产业的敞口巨大。
该行表示，对于铝和铜等基础金属来说，由于新兴市场3%至5%的需求增长幅度将持续到2020年代，它们的表现可能会好一些。花旗指出，即便中国经济增长的消费基数较高，多数大宗商品的需求量仍有可能降低。
这对自然资源的需求是一个双重打击。一方面，中国的整体经济增长正在放缓。
另一方面，随着中国经济增长的“大宗商品强度”迅速下降，同超级周期时代相比，每单位较低增长产生的金属和能源需求甚至更低。
The commodities supercycle may be over but there’s no replacement for China as the world’sfactory, according to Citi.
From now on, commodities demand will come from a diversified group of regions including India,the Middle East, Latin America, Africa and countries belonging to Asean in Southeast Asia.
But this would not be enough to offset China, leading to slower worldwide demand growth forcommodities and weaker global trade flows, the bank said.
Global commodities demand growth will be substantially slower than during the past decade.Hardest hit would be thermal coal, steel iron ore and coking coal, given their exposure toChina’s manufacturing, infrastructure and real estate sectors, Citi said.
base metals such as aluminium and copper are likely to do better with emerging marketdemand growth in the 3-5 per cent range into the 2020s, it said. The bank noted that, even asChina’s economy grows from a higher consumption base, volume demand was likely to be lowerfor most commodities.
For natural resources demand, this is a dual blow. First, overall economic growth in China isslowing.
Second, the commodity intensity of the economic growth is falling rapidly such that eachincrement of lower growth generated even less demand for metals and energy than during thesupercycle.
For China to bring investment share of GDP down to 40 per cent by 2020 would requireinvestment growth about 3 percentage points lower than GDP, which had “profoundimplications” for commodities demand, Citi said.
