英国《金融时报》对相关数据进行分析发现，若不是全球大宗商品价格暴跌，中国经济在第一季度的扩张速度将不到6%。这令人担忧政府实现7%全年增长目标的能力。
中国国家统计局(NBS)在4月发布的第一季度简报中，报告国内生产总值(GDP)增加了7%，但并未提供整体增长数字的三个组成部分的数据：消费、投资和净出口。
中国政府近年一直试图提振消费，同时推动经济摆脱传统上对信贷助燃投资的依赖。净出口数字在中国对贸易伙伴有整体顺差的情况下会提振增长数字，传统上，它对产出的影响较小。
根据最近才可获得的中国第一季度GDP分类数据，净出口为中国7%的增长贡献了1.3个百分点。相比之下，净出口在2014年7.4%（中国25年来最慢的年度扩张速度）的增长数字中只占0.1个百分点。
与此同时，消费和投资分别占第一季度经济增长的4.5和1.2个百分点。若没有来自净出口的1.3个百分点的提振，中国第一季度增长数字将低得多，大约为5.7%。
“这相当令人担忧，”咨询公司信源(Trusted Sources)中国经济学家庄波表示。“这就是为什么（最近几个月）政府的政策变得更加积极的原因。”
中国政府自去年11月以来已四次降息，力求将增长稳定在7%左右。中国将于下周公布第二季度GDP估算数字。（中国进出口网）
China’s economy would have expanded at less than 6 per cent in the first quarter if not for the collapse in global commodity prices, according to data reviewed by the Financial Times, raising concerns about the government’s ability to hit its 7 per cent growth target for the full year.
At its first-quarter briefing in April, the National Bureau of Statistics reported that gross domestic product had increased 7 per cent but did not provide a breakdown of the growth figure into its three components — consumption, investment and net exports.
The Chinese government has been trying to boost consumption while weaning the economy off its traditional reliance on credit-fuelled investment. The net export figure, which boosts growth when China enjoys an overall surplus with its trading partners, has traditionally had a much more modest impact on output.
According to a breakdown of China’s first-quarter GDP figure that has only recently become available, net exports contributed 1.3 percentage points of the country’s seven per cent growth. By comparison, net exports accounted for just 0.1 percentage points of the 7.4 per cent growth figure reported for 2014 — China’s slowest annual rate of expansion in a quarter century.
Consumption and investment, meanwhile, accounted for 4.5 and 1.2 percentage points of first-quarter growth respectively. Without the 1.3 percentage point boost from net exports, China’s first-quarter growth figure would have been much lower at about 5.7 per cent.
“It’s quite worrisome,” said Bo Zhuang, China economist at consultancy Trusted Sources. “That’s why the government’s policies have been much more aggressive [over recent months].”
The Chinese government, which will release its second-quarter GDP estimate next week, has cut interest rates four times since November in a bid to keep growth steady at about 7 per cent.
