中国是全球最大的黄金需求国,每年都有大量的黄金被进口到中国,那么,这些黄金从何而来呢?
BullionStar分析师Koos Jansen指出,要知道中国市场真正黄金需求,可以看两方面的数据,首先是世界黄金协会(WGC)的需求趋势报告,其次则是上海黄金交易所(SGE)的黄金交割数据。
China is the world's largest gold consumer, and a huge amount of gold is imported into the country every year, so where does it come from?
BullionStar analyst Koos Jansen pointed out that to know the real gold demand in the Chinese market, you can look at two aspects of the data, the first is the World Gold Council (WGC) demand trend report, and the second is the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) gold delivery data.
Jansen指出,从上述数据来看,今年前三季度中国总计净进口了777吨黄金,也就是今年全年的进口量将在1036吨左右。
就今年而言,被进口到中国大陆的黄金主要来自瑞士和中国香港。
9月瑞士净出口了18吨黄金到中国,前三季度中国总计从瑞士进口了221吨,同比下降4%。
从图表可以看出,虽然瑞士每个月都会有黄金被出口到中国,但实际上,大部分时候瑞士反而是净进口方,因瑞士是全球黄金加工中心,反而有很多黄金被进口到瑞士。
结合欧洲统计局(Eurostat)和美国地质调查局(USGS)数据来看,从瑞士被出口到中国的黄金有很多个来源。
譬如在今年1月,英国出口了大量黄金到瑞士,而这其中显然会有不少再被出口到中国。6月则有大量美国黄金被出口到瑞士,而9月有大量中东地区黄金被出口到瑞士,这些黄金都有可能被最终再出口到中国。
再看香港统计局的数据,数据显示,9月香港地区出口了30吨黄金到中国大陆,环比下降8%,同比大降44%,前三季度有515吨黄金从香港地区被出口到中国大陆,同比下降15%。
Switzerland exported a net 18 tonnes of gold to China in September, bringing China's total imports from Switzerland to 221 tonnes in the first three quarters, down 4% from a year earlier.
As you can see from the chart, although Switzerland exports gold to China every month, in fact, most of the time Switzerland is a net importer, because Switzerland is a global gold processing center, a lot of gold is imported to Switzerland.
According to data from Eurostat and the United States Geological Survey (USGS), gold exports from Switzerland to China come from a variety of sources.
For example, in January this year, the UK exported a large amount of gold to Switzerland, and a lot of this will obviously be exported to China. In June, a large amount of US gold was exported to Switzerland, and in September, a large amount of Middle Eastern gold was exported to Switzerland, which is likely to be eventually re-exported to China.
Looking at the data of the Hong Kong Bureau of Statistics, the data show that in September, Hong Kong exported 30 tons of gold to the Chinese mainland, down 8% from the previous quarter, down 44%, the first three quarters of 515 tons of gold from Hong Kong was exported to the Chinese mainland, down 15%.
和瑞士相似,香港也是一大黄金交易中心,因此香港地区黄金的来源也是多种多样的。
从2013年到2015年年中,香港地区进口了大量黄金,主要来源是瑞士和英国,而从香港地区进口最多黄金的则是中国大陆。
此后,西方国家出口到香港的黄金逐渐减少,但中国大陆的进口量基本维持,因此香港地区成为了净出口黄金的地区。在这种状况持续几年之后,香港地区本身还持有多少黄金则成为一个谜团。
从2002年到2008年间,香港地区一直是处在黄金净出口状态中的,之后到2015年为止,则转而成为净进口方,但在2015年之后,再次变为净出口方。
Like Switzerland, Hong Kong is also a major gold trading center, so the sources of gold in the region are diverse.
After several years of this, it is a mystery how much gold Hong Kong itself still holds.
From 2002 to 2008, Hong Kong was a net exporter of gold, then switched to being a net importer until 2015, and then became a net exporter again after 2015.
值得注意的是,Comex有一个1公斤金条的黄金合约,其交割地点是在香港,这一合约的交易量很小,因此交割量也很小。但与此同时,该合约的金库吞吐量却相当惊人。
Jansen指出,可以看出该金矿中1公斤金条的进库量和交割量与香港地区对中国大陆的黄金进出口量是有很大相关性的。
也就是说,香港地区是中国大陆主要的黄金来源地区,而香港地区的黄金来源于多个国家。
从图中可以看出,香港地区进口的黄金中,最多的是来自瑞士、南非、美国、澳大利亚和菲律宾等国。而这些黄金很大一部分都最终被再出口到了中国大陆。
除了瑞士和香港地区,中国大陆黄金进口来源第三的就是澳大利亚、美国、日本和加拿大,今年至今分别进口了20吨、14吨、3吨和4吨。
由此来看,今年至今中国大陆进口的这777吨黄金中,515吨来自中国香港;221吨来自瑞士;20吨来自澳大利亚、14吨来自美国、3吨来自日本、4吨来自加拿大。
此外,中国还是全球最大的黄金生产国,而中国本身矿产的黄金是完全不出口的,正因此,中国国内到底有多少黄金一直是国际市场在猜测的一个谜团。
It is worth noting that Comex has a 1 kg bullion gold contract with a delivery point in Hong Kong, and the volume of this contract is very small, so the delivery volume is also very small. But at the same time, the contract's vault throughput is quite staggering.
As can be seen from the chart, Hong Kong imports the most gold from Switzerland, South Africa, the United States, Australia and the Philippines and other countries.
In addition to Switzerland and Hong Kong, China's third largest source of gold imports is Australia, the United States, Japan and Canada, which have imported 20 tons, 14 tons, 3 tons and 4 tons, respectively, so far this year.
Of the 777 tons of gold imported to China so far this year, 515 tons came from Hong Kong; 221 tons from Switzerland; 20 tons from Australia, 14 tons from the United States, 3 tons from Japan and 4 tons from Canada.
In addition, China is also the world's largest gold producer, and China's own gold minerals are not exported at all, which is why exactly how much gold in China has been a mystery in the international market.
据中国黄金协会数据显示,今年前三季度中国的黄金矿产总量为313吨,那么加上777吨的进口量,就是总计1090吨的供应量。同时,上海黄金交易所在前三季度交割了1505吨,那么意味着还有差不多415吨的黄金供应来自废料回收和投资撤资。
Jansen认为,中国所持有的所有黄金量目前在16575吨,如果加上中国央行实际的黄金储备可能有4000吨左右,那么总计有20575吨左右的黄金。
(黄金头条)
According to the China Gold Association, China's gold mines totaled 313 tons in the first three quarters of this year, so adding 777 tons of imports makes a total supply of 1,090 tons. At the same time, the Shanghai Gold Exchange delivered 1,505 tonnes in the first three quarters, which means that almost 415 tonnes of gold supply came from scrap recycling and investment divestment.
Jansen believes that China's total gold holdings currently stand at 16,575 tonnes, and if you add in the fact that the Chinese central bank's actual gold reserves may be around 4,000 tonnes, the total is around 20,575 tonnes of gold.