根据发达国家经济发展的规律,当一个国家人均GDP达到 1000美元时,牛肉消费会逐步增加,达到1500美元时,牛肉的消费将会大幅增加。2005年我国人均GDP达到1090美元,2008年人均GDP达到1700美元,我国或已进入牛肉消费需求的快速增长期。
受国内消费环境的影响,牛肉需求量不断增加,而肉牛总量相对短缺,供需的不平衡推高了价格。随着人们生活水平的提高,我国牛肉消费量越来越大,导致国内牛肉价格一路走高。相较于国内庞大的消费群体,我国牛肉产能相对不足,只能依靠大批量的进口牛肉来填补国内市场的空缺。
虽然进口牛肉的产地较多,但由于冷鲜肉和冷冻肉的保存环境有差异,出于食用安全考虑,我国一般进口冷冻肉。据海关信息网统计,2012年我国进口冻牛肉30.3万吨,同比增长2.1倍;2013年进口141.4万吨,同比大幅增长3.7倍;今年前7月我国进口冻牛肉91.6万吨,同比增长27.8%。
澳洲以“绿色无污染”的声誉使其成为我国最大的牛肉供应市场。我国已是澳大利亚最大的贸易伙伴和出口市场。
今年前7月,我国牛肉供应偏紧,冻牛肉进口持续增长,进口量达到18.3万吨,比去年同期增长27.8%;进口均价为4338.9美元/吨,同比小幅增长2.8%。其中从澳大利亚进口牛肉8.5万吨,同比增长32.5%,进口均价为4660.7美元/吨,同比微增2.6%,进口量占同期我国冻牛肉进口总量的46.7%。进口量排名第二位和第三位的是乌拉圭和新西兰,进口量分别为5.1万吨和2.9万吨,同比分别增长33.4%和11.7%,分别占同期我国冻牛肉进口总量的28.1%和15.6%。(中国进出口网整理翻译)
According to the laws of economic development in developed countries, when a country's AGDP reaches $1,000, beef consumption will gradually increase, when a country's AGDP reaches $1,500, the consumption of beef will increase substantially. In 2005 China's AGDP reached $1,090, in 2008 it reached $1,700, China may have entered a period - consumer’s demand for beef rapidly grows.
Affected by domestic consumption environment, the demand for beef is increasing, moreover total beef cattle is relatively in short, the imbalance between supply and demand has pushed up prices. With the improvement of people's living standards, consumption of beef is growing, domestic beef price is climbing higher and higher. Compared with the huge domestic consumer groups, beef production is relatively in lack, China can only rely on importing beef in large quantities to fill the domestic market.
Although there are many origins China can import beef, due to differences between the cold meat preservation and frozen meat preservation, in order to ensure food safety, China generally imports frozen meat. According to the statistics from Customs Information Network, in 2012 China imported 303,000 tons of frozen beef, increasing 2.1 times from one year earlier; in 2013 China imported 1.414 million tons, up 3.7 times; in the first seven months this year, China imported 916,000 tons of frozen beef , an increase of 27.8% from the same period last year.
Australia is famous for "green clean", which makes it China's largest beef supply market. China has been Australia's largest trading partner and export market.
In the first seven months this year, China's beef supply is tight, frozen beef imports continued to grow and reached 183,000 tons, an increase of 27.8% from the same period last year; import price is $4,338.9 / ton, a slight increase of 2.8 percent year on year. China imported 85,000 tons of beef from Australia, an increase of 32.5%, the average import price is $4,660.7 / ton, slightly up 2.6%, imports from Australia accounted 46.7% of total imports of beef imports. Uruguay and New Zealand ranked second and third, imports were 51,000 tons and 29,000 tons, an increase of 33.4% and 11.7% from the same period last year, accounting for 28.1% and 15.6% of total beef imports.