近日，海关信息网（www.haiguan.info）发布《2014年我国经济形势综述及进出口贸易形势分析报告》（以下简称年度报告）。
报告认为：2015年全球经济延续弱势复苏态势，面临格局失衡、地缘政治等风险，国内经济增速放缓的同时结构调整加快。进出口贸易或将迎来政策密集期和新增长点培育期。预计2015年进出口额27.5万亿元人民币，增长约3.9%；其中，进口12.2万亿元人民币，增长约1.3%，出口15.3万亿元人民币，增长约6.1%。
201４年我国经济增速放缓，逐步进入“新常态”运行轨道，并呈现以下特点：
第二，2014年我国进出口货运量总体保持增长态势，货运量与贸易额走势基本一致。
第三，区域布局进一步优化：东部地区外贸增速放缓，比重持续回落；中西部地区外贸依然保持高速增长，发展后劲十足，或将成未来我国外贸新的增长点。
第四，一般贸易比重继续提高，外贸结构调整成效初步显现；但一般贸易项下进口微幅萎缩，凸显内需疲软。
第五，从商品分析，机电进出口增，高新技术微降，劳动密集型商品出口持稳，“两高一资”商品出口快速增长，大宗商品进口量增价跌，涉及民生的农产品进口快速增长。
此外，报告还对2015年我国进出口贸易的影响因素进行深度分析及进出口走势预判。
随着我国经济增长进入“新常态”，2015年我国外贸将继续保持个位数增长。出口方面，虽然全球经济整体仍呈现弱势复苏态势，但是“一带一路”战略的推进将为我国出口提供支撑，预计年内出口将继续保持平稳增长；进口方面，仍面临国内需求偏弱及国际大宗商品价格下跌的双重压力，但是随着包括中西部铁路、水利工程等基础建设项目的相继启动，2015年进口增速将有所回升。预计： 2015年我国进出口额274563亿元人民币，增长约3.9%；其中，进口121937亿元人民币，增长约1.3%，出口152626亿元人民币，增长约6.1%。（中国进出口网）
Recently, the Customs Information Network (www.haiguan.info) issued the "2014 China's economic situation and the import and export trade situation analysis summary report" (hereinafter referred to as the Annual Report).
The Report says, in 2015 the global economic will continue the weak recovery trend, facing structure imbalance and geopolitical risks, at the same time of the domestic economic slowdown, structural adjustment is accelerating. import and export trade may usher vigorous policies and new growth point incubation period. It’s estimated that in 2015 import and export volume will reach 27.5 trillion yuan, an increase of approximately 3.9%; of which, imports 12.2 trillion yuan, an increase of about 1.3%, exports 15.3 trillion yuan, an increase of approximately 6.1%.
China's economic growth slowed in 2014, and China’s economy is gradually into the "new normal" orbit, and showed the following characteristics:
First, the 2014 foreign trade growth fell down, weak demand inhibited import growth, and the export leading indicators fell for three consecutive months, export growth was weak.
Second, the 2014 overall import and export goods maintained growth momentum, cargo and trade movements basically stayed the same.
Third, he regional distribution further optimized: the growth of foreign trade in the eastern areas declined; the growth of foreign trade in the Midwest areas remained rapid, the development potential is great, which may become the new growth point of China's foreign trade.
Fourth, the proportion of general trade continued to increase, the structural adjustment of the foreign trade began to come into effect; but the imports of the general trade shrink slightly, highlighting weak domestic demand.
Fifth, in terms of commodity, the imports and exports of electromechanical products grew, high-tech went down, labor-intensive exports stayed steady, the exports of energy-consuming, highly-polluting and resource product increased fast, commodities imports volume increased but values decreased, imports of agricultural products grew fast.
In addition, the report also analyzes the factors affecting China's foreign trade in 2015 and predicts the import and export trends. The report notes that, among the favorable factors include the following three aspects.
As China's economic growth goes into the "new normal", in 2015 China's foreign trade will continue to maintain single-digit growth. In Exports, although the global economy as a whole is still showing weak recovery trend, but the promotion of “one belt one road” strategy will give support to China's exports, exports are expected to continue to maintain steady growth during the year; in imports, dual pressure still exit, the domestic demand is still weak and international commodity prices fall down, but with the Midwest railway, water conservancy project and other infrastructure projects to start, in 2015 imports speed will be picked up. It’s estimated that in 2015 import and export volume will reach 27.5 trillion yuan, an increase of approximately 3.9%; of which, imports 12.2 trillion yuan, an increase of about 1.3%, exports 15.3 trillion yuan, an increase of approximately 6.1%.
