今年前两个月，我国大米出口量出现大幅上涨。业内人士预计，2015年大米进口量也将维持高位。而由于国际大米出口市场竞争日趋激烈，各个国家争相促销库存大米，短期内，国际米价难以大幅上涨。
国内外大米价差扩大
据中国海关总署近日公布的数据显示，中国2月份出口大米15120吨，1月份出口大米19312吨，1~2月份大米出口总量为34432吨，去年同期累计为24182吨，同比增长42.4%。
业内人士预计，2015年我国大米进口量仍有可能超过250万吨。2015年稻谷的最低收购价与去年持平；而国际大米出口市场竞争仍将十分激烈，近日，泰国政府已明确表示将在2015年促销1000万吨左右的库存大米，其他诸如柬埔寨等主产国的大米出口计划也较去年提高，国际米价大幅上扬的可能性较小。
值得注意的是，近期，国内外大米价差有所扩大。目前，泰国5%破碎率大米到我国港口的C&F价为426美元/吨，到港成本约为3139元/吨；越南5%破碎率大米到我国港口的C&F价为360美元/吨，到港成本约为2668元/吨。这与我国南方销区早籼米价差为760元/吨~1250元/吨。
3月过后，南方储备稻谷即将进入轮换期，而其存储品种以籼稻为主，再加上部分地区上年的轮换任务尚未完成，预计短期内籼稻供应增加，陈稻市场价格下行压力较大，再加上近几个月国际低品质大米价格持续下跌，与国内大米的价差连续数月扩大，进口大米流入国内的数量也将维持高位。（中国进出口网）
In the first two months of this year, China's export volume of rice rose sharply. Industry insiders estimate that in 2015 the amount of rice imports will remain high. And because the international rice export market is increasingly fierce, each country competes to promote rice stocks. In the short term, it’s difficult to rise sharply for international rice prices.
Expanding rice price difference at home and abroad
According to data recently released by China General Administration of Customs, China exported 15,120 tons of rice in February, 19,312 tons of rice in January, total exports of these two months reached 34,432 tons, an increase of 42.4%, compared with the cumulative 24,182 tons last year.
Industry insiders estimate that in 2015, China's rice import volume may still be more than 2.5 million tons. The minimum purchase price of rice in 2015 is as same as the last year’s price; and the international rice export market will remain very intense competition, recently, the Thai government has made it clear that in 2015 about 10 million tons of rice stocks will be promoted, other major rice producing countries such as Cambodia also increase rice exports, international rice prices are less likely to rise sharply.
It is noteworthy that, recently, the domestic and international rice difference expands. Currently, C&F price of Thai 5% broken rate of rice exporting to the Chinese port is $ 426 / ton, cost to port is 3139 yuan / ton; C&F price of Vietnamese 5% broken rate of rice to the Chinese port of C & F price $ 360 / ton, cost to port is about 2668 yuan / ton. The price difference from the indica rice in southern China is 760 yuan / ton to 1250 yuan / ton.
After March, the reserve rice in the South will enter the rotation period, and the main storage variety is indica, plus parts of last year's rotation task has not been completed, it is expected to increase in the short term supply of indica rice, rice last year’s rice price falling down, coupled with low-quality rice price downward in recent months, thus the rice price difference expands for several months, imported rice volume will also remain high.
