经过5年多的谈判后，12个国家在10月5日早晨宣布成功签署了《跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》(TPP)。TPP涵盖了全球近40%的经济总量。对奥巴马政府来说，该协定是一个巨大的成就，可能具有深远的地缘政治影响。TPP有望成为奥巴马政府两大外交政策成就之一（还有一个是伊朗核协议），并可能成为他最大的政治遗产之一。遗憾的是，签署协议只是第一步——奥巴马在推动美国国会通过TPP时将面临巨大挑战。
主要益处
该协议将亚洲和拉美的12个国家联系在一起，致力于在许多成员国极为敏感的一些领域（比如汽车和农业）降低关税，并解决其他众多贸易事项（从野生动物保护到制药行业的知识产权）。华盛顿的彼得森国际经济研究所(Peterson Institute for International Economics)表示，到2025年，TPP每年可能给全球带来2950亿美元的益处。
但经济效益只是该协定的积极方面之一。尽管还不是板上钉钉，但它也有望带来巨大的地缘政治影响。TPP并非唯一可选的亚洲贸易协定。例如，中国此前支持替代的“区域全面经济伙伴关系协定”(RegionalComprehensive Economic Partnership)。但美国、澳大利亚、文莱、加拿大、智利、日本、马来西亚、墨西哥、新西兰、秘鲁、新加坡和越南这12个TPP成员国在哪些标准和规则（从提高透明度和反腐，到更为自由和开放的市场）最有利于为本国人民带来最大福祉的问题上，发出了明确信号。
西方领导地位
TPP现在树立了标杆。如果获得成功的话，其他国家将有望加入，最重要的将是印度、中国和韩国。但这将需要时间，TPP还必须首先证明自己。为了加入TPP，那些准成员国将不得不做出极为艰难的政治选择，它们和它们的人民将需要首先看到实实在在的重大好处。但门已经打开，只要TPP实现其部分潜力，其他国家就会来敲门。
尽管某些人发表种种言论，但TPP并不是要将中国排除在外。有人希望有一天中国会加入。但与此同时，TPP可能有助于许多亚洲国家贸易多元化，摆脱当前依赖中国的局面（除了文莱以外，中国是所有TPP亚洲成员国的第一大进口来源，同时中国还跻身于这些国家的三大出口目的地之列）。
该协定也有助于一些领导人（尤其是日本首相安倍晋三(Shinzo Abe)）在国内采取一些必要的、但在政治上棘手的举措。安倍的“三支箭”包括亟需的经济结构改革——TPP将会协助这种改革，提供外部激励和一些切实的好处，使良药不那么苦口。
最后，该协定是一个小小的迹象，表明（广义的）西方经济领导地位并未完全消失。尽管一段时间以来显而易见的是，二战后设立的布雷顿森林体系不再合乎需要，但各方并未采取什么行动更新这一体系。在2008年经济衰退之后成立的20国集团(G20)一度发挥了其应有的作用。12个国家能够在TPP的框架下团结起来或许表明，仍有可能制定新的支持长期规范的规则和协定。
胜负难料
这并不是说，该协议的所有元素都是积极的。和往常一样，总有赢家和输家。在美国，从烟草公司到制药企业和工会等许多利益集团已经在表示反对。对许多人来说，标准或保护机制还不够到位。同时，尽管通过贸易可能创造更多的就业岗位，但一些人将会失业。
正是这些利益集团将会加大推动该协定在美国（和其他地方）获得通过的难度。包括美国在内的许多立法机关将需要就此举行投票。国会将有90天的时间进行考虑（包括公开协议文本后的60天时间），这将让国会辩论延伸至2016选举年。
这是奥巴马面临的重大挑战。共和党通常会支持自由贸易。但随着选举临近，任何共和党人都很难让奥巴马获得如此重大的胜利。人们会希望，民主党人将在如此重要的事情上支持他们的总统。但对民主党来说，这是非常敏感的问题，该党往往以未能为美国劳工提供足够保护为由，反对贸易法案。在希拉里克林顿(HillaryClinton)和其他人到美国中部争取民主党选票之际，人们将会密切关注他们如何回应该协定。（据后来的报道，希拉里已经表示反对TPP。）
这种局面将胜负难料。TPP在任何时候都会引发争议，但现在愈显敏感。另一方面，批准该协定对确保当前有利于西方的规则和标准长期存续非常关键。同时有必要表明西方可以继续有所作为。推动TPP获得通过是至关重要的。（中国进出口网）
After more than five years of negotiations, Monday morning 12 countries announced thesuccessful conclusion of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), a trade agreement that coversnearly 40 per cent of the global economy. This deal is a significant success for the Obamaadministration, with potentially profound geostrategic implications. The TPP has thepotential to be one of the top two foreign policy successes of the Obama administration(along with the Iran nuclear deal) and could be one of his greatest legacies. Unfortunately, thesigning is merely the first step –the US president is going to have a huge challenge in gettingit through Congress.
Major benefits
Bringing together 12 countries in Asia and Latin America the deal focuses on tariff reductions insome extremely sensitive areas for many of the member states, such as automobiles andagriculture, as well as addressing a number of other trade issues ranging from wildlifeconservation to intellectual property issues in the pharmaceutical arena. According to thePeterson Institute in Washington, DC, by 2025 the TPP could result in annual benefits (opens innew window) of $295 billion globally.
But the economic benefits are only one upside of the deal. While it is by no means assured,there could also be a significant geostrategic impact. The TPP was not the only Asian tradeagreement of choice. China, for example, had been supporting an alternative RegionalComprehensive Economic Partnership. But the 12 TPP participants – the US, Australia, Brunei,Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore and Vietnam – sent aclear message regarding the kind of standards and rules they believe are best placed to providethe greatest benefit to their populations – from greater transparency and anticorruption tomore free and open markets.
Western leadership
The TPP now sets the bar. If successful, in time other states will hopefully join including, mostsignificantly, India, China and South Korea. But this will take time and the TPP has to proveitself first. Prospective member states will have to make extremely tough political choices inorder to join and they and their populations will need to see meaningful tangible benefits first.But the door has been left open and if the TPP turns out to realize some of its potential,others could come knocking on the door.
Despite the rhetoric from some, the deal is not about excluding China. There are some whohope, some day, to see it join. But, at the same time, it could facilitate a diversification bymany Asian states away from their current China-dependence (excepting Brunei, China is thenumber one importer for all the Asian TPP states and in the top three for their exports).
The deal also helps some leaders, most notably Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, to takesome necessary, but politically difficult, domestic steps. Abe’s ‘three arrows’ include much-needed economic structural reform – the TPP will assist with this, providing an externalimpetus and a spoonful of sugar to go along with the tough medicine.
Finally, the deal is a small sign that Western (broadly defined) economic leadership has notdisappeared entirely. While it has been clear for some time that the Bretton Woods institutionsset up following the Second World War are no longer fit for purpose, little has been done toupdate them. The G20, set up following the 2008 recession, served its purpose for a while. Theability of 12 nations to come together on TPP is perhaps a sign that new rules and agreementsin support of long-standing norms are still possible.
Close call
This is not to say that all elements of the deal are positive. As always there are winners andlosers. In the US, many interest groups from tobacco companies to pharmaceuticals to uniosare already pushing back. The standards or protections are, for many, not sufficient. And whilemore jobs might be created through trade, some people will lose theirs.
It is these groups that will make the passing of this deal in the United States (and elsewher)so tough. Many legislatures will need to vote on this, including in the US. Congress will have 90days to consider it (including 60 in which the text is public). This is going to move theCongressional debate well into 2016, an election year.
And this is wher President Obama has a major challenge on his hands. Typically, free trade issomething that the Republican Party can get behind. But, this close to an election, it will bevery tough for any Republican to give President Obama such a big win. One would hope that theDemocrats would support their president on something so important. But this is very sensitiveissue for Democrats, who tend to reject trade bills as not providing sufficient protection forAmerican labour. And as Hillary Clinton and others go out to court the Democratic vote in MiddleAmerica, they are going to be watched very closely for how they respond to this agreement.
This is going to be a very close call. It would be controversial at any time, but right now thesensitivities are heightened. On the other hand, approving this deal is vital to ensure thelongevity of the current rules and standards which favour the West. And it is necessary toshow that the West can continue to be effective. It is paramount that the TPP pass.
