世界主要能源预测机构——国际能源机构(IEA)周二表示，石油输出国组织（OPEC，简称欧佩克）产油量增加以及全球经济增长放缓意味着，原油供过于求的现象将延续到明年。
IEA称，随着低油价的刺激效应逐渐消失、依赖大宗商品收入的国家经济活动减弱，预计石油需求增长将出现“显著放缓”。
“每桶50美元的油价是推动全球石油市场再平衡的一个强有力因素，”IEA在其备受关注的月度报告中称，“但是，明年石油需求增速预计将显著放缓、伊朗料将增加产油量……很可能会使市场供过于求的状态延续到整个2016年。”
IEA补充称，一旦针对伊朗的制裁解除，这个欧佩克成员国就可能增产，其影响预计将大于美国自2008年以来石油产量首次下降的影响。
油价暴跌推动石油需求出现近10年以来最强劲的增长——全球石油日需求量增加180万桶，达到每日9450万桶。汽油需求尤其强劲，表明较低的油价鼓励了机动车驾驶者更多地开车。但是，IEA预计，这一效应将会消失，明年的需求增长预计将放慢至120万桶/天。
IEA称，全球经济前景“更加悲观”。IEA利用国际货币基金组织(IMF)的增长预测来对石油需求状况作出估计。IMF本月早些时候表示，2015年世界经济增速将是全球金融危机以来最慢的一年。
加拿大、巴西、委内瑞拉、俄罗斯和沙特阿拉伯等依赖石油收入的经济体的经济增长放缓，也会对石油需求增长造成影响。
“在其中很多国家，在其他条件相同的情况下，大宗商品价格下滑最终等同于公共开支减少，可能会抑制消费者支出，”IEA称。
然而，在油价暴跌的情况下，欧佩克大型成员国正慢慢地从成本较高的产油国——比如生产页岩油的美国——手中夺回市场份额。
由于欧佩克成员国产量增加抵消了美国以及非欧佩克产油国减产的影响，9月全球石油日均供应量稳定在将近9660万桶的水平。
“高成本的供应——主要是非欧佩克国家——正在被挤出市场，”IEA称，“美国的石油供应——此前一直是供应增长的推动力——已经在迅速下降。”
受全球大型能源公司削减支出20%以上的影响，9月非欧佩克国家的日均石油供应量减少18万桶，达到每日5830万桶。预计2015年的日均产油量将处于这一水平，而明年预计将进一步减少50万桶。
“放缓最多的是美国，”IEA称，“自9月初以来钻探活动进一步减少，预计美国轻致密油(light-tight oil)产量将加速下滑。”
美国石油日产量的同比增幅，从2015年初的160万桶减少至30万桶。
不过，非欧佩克国家的石油供应状况超出了预期，8月、9月巴西和俄罗斯的石油产量均刷新了纪录。
9月，欧佩克日均原油供应量增加9万桶，达到3170万桶——伊拉克产量创纪录抵消了沙特减产的影响。今年迄今，欧佩克平均日产原油3120万桶，产油量较去年同期日均增加100万桶。面对油价大幅下跌，欧佩克决定保持产量以重新赢回客户，而没有为支持价格而增产。（中国进出口网）
Higher oil output from Opec and a slowdown in world economic growth means the crude oil glut will persist through next year, the world’s leading energy forecaster said on Tuesday.
The International Energy Agency said it expected a “marked slowdown” in oil demand growth as the stimulus from lower prices faded and as economic activity weakened in countries dependent on commodity revenues.
“Oil at $50 a barrel is a powerful driver in rebalancing the global oil market,” the IEA said in its closely watched monthly report. “But a projected marked slowdown in demand growth next year and the anticipated arrival of additional Iranian barrels...愠爀攀 likely to keep the market oversupplied through 2016.”
An increase in production from Opec member Iran once sanctions are lifted is expected to overshadow the first dro in US oil output since 2008, the IEA added.
The collapse in oil prices has supported the strongest oil demand growth in almost a decade, with low prices helping boost demand by 1.8m barrels a day to 94.5m b/d. Gasoline demand has been particularly strong, suggesting motorists have been encouraged to drive more by lower prices. But the IEA forecasts that effect will fade, with demand growth set to slow to 1.2m b/d next year.
The IEA, which uses the International Monetary Fund’s growth assumptions for its oil demand estimates, said the global economic outlook was “more pessimistic”. The fund said earlier this month the world economy would grow for 2015 at its slowest pace since the global financial crisis.
Weaker economic growth in oil-dependent economies such as Canada, Brazil, Venezuela, Russia and Saudi Arabia will also have an impact on demand growth.
“Lower commodity prices, with all else held equal, eventually equate to lower public spending and a potential dampening in consumer expenditure in many of these countries,” the IEA said.
The largest Opec countries are slowly succeeding, however, in taking back market share from higher cost producers like US shale amid the oil price crash.
World oil supply held steady near 96.6m b/d in September as a dro in output from the US, and other producers outside of Opec, was offset by increased supply from the cartel itself.
“High-cost supply — primarily non-Opec — is being forced out,” the IEA said. “Supply in the US — which had been the motor of growth — is already sinking swiftly.”
Non-Opec supply slipped 180,000 b/d to 58.3m b/d in September as spending cuts of more than 20 per cent by the world’s biggest energy companies had an impact. Production is expected to average at this level for 2015, before dropping a further 500,000 b/d next year.
“The sharpest slowdown is in the US,” the IEA said. “Further reductions in drilling activity since the start of September are expected to accelerate declines in US light tight oil production.”
US year-over-year gains have eased to just 300,000 b/d from 1.6m b/d in early 2015.
Non-Opec supplies nevertheless exceeded expectations, with Brazil and Russia recording record output levels during August and September.
Opec crude supply — led by record Iraqi output, which offset declines from Saudi Arabia — rose 90,000 b/d in September to 31.7m b/d. Year to date the group has pumped 31.2m b/d, 1m b/d higher than the same period a year ago, before the cartel decided to keep the taps open to win back customers rather than defend prices.
