一代老人将要改变全球经济。他们将不会以相同的方式来这样做。
在20世纪这个星球的人口将会翻两倍。在目前的世纪中，他将不会双倍或者一倍，因为生产率在世界的许多地方已经严重的退化。但是超过65岁的人口的数目将会在在过去的25年中翻倍。这种人口结构的转变并没有和之前来的扩张一样是暂时的。但是它已经能够足够的重新形成这个世界的经济。
根据联合国的人口规划，人口的标准资源预估，将会有大约600万的超过65岁的人或者更老的人在今天活着。这个本身是非常非凡的，作者Fred Pearce 宣称可能有一半的超过65岁的人类在今天活着。但是作为全部人口的一部分，大约8%，和过去很多年一样，没有什么不同。
但是，到了2035年，超过11亿的人口---13%的人口---将会超过65岁。这是降低生产率的自然推论，这种推论减缓全部的人口增长。它意味着将有更少比例的年轻人围绕。老年人的抚养比率---老人的比率和那些工作年龄的比率将会增长的更快。在2010年每一百个人在25到64岁之间，就会有16个人超过65岁。几乎在1980年它拥有相同的比率。到了2035年联合国估计这个数字会增长到26.
A generation of old people is about to change the global economy. They will not all do so in the same way.
In the 20th century the planet’s population doubled twice. It will not double even once in the current century, because birth rates in much of the world have declined steeply. But the number of people over 65 is set to double within just 25 years. This shift in the structure of the population is not as momentous as the expansion that came before. But it is more than enough to reshape the world economy.
According to the UN’s population projections, the standard source for demographic estimates, there are around 600m people aged 65 or older alive today. That is in itself remarkable; the author Fred Pearce claims it is possible that half of all the humans who have ever been over 65 are alive today. But as a share of the total population, at 8%, it is not that different to what it was a few decades ago.By 2035, however, more than 1.1 billion people—13% of the population—will be above the age of 65. This is a natural corollary of the dropping birth rates that are slowing overall population growth; they mean there are proportionally fewer young people around. The “old-age dependency ratio”—the ratio of old people to those of working age—will grow even faster. In 2010 the world had 16 people aged 65 and over for every 100 adults between the ages of 25 and 64, almost the same ratio it had in 1980. By 2035 the UN expects that number to have risen to 26.
