8月份中国房价继续下行
8月份全中国新公布的房价都出现了下跌,表明中国房地产市场增长严重放缓。部分分析师表示,这次放缓是全球经济的最大威胁之一。
根据中国国家统计局(National Bureau of Statistics)发布的数据,在被调查的70个城市中,8月份有68个城市的房价出现下跌,其中包括北京、上海和广州等富裕城市。
相比之下,7月份有64个城市的房价下跌。
路透社(Reuters)从这些数据计算得出,8月份房价平均比7月份下跌1.1%。
在多年投资驱动的热潮之后,中国房地产市场的增长正在放缓。这次下行导致炼钢原料铁矿石价格的下跌,从而威胁到全球矿商的盈利。不仅如此,楼市长期低迷还可能加重中国各银行及“影子”银行的压力。所谓“影子”银行是指信托公司之类不受监管的金融机构,这些信托公司会向包括房地产开发商在内的高风险借款人发放贷款。
Beyondbrics特邀博主、Orient Capital Research的安德鲁•科利尔(Andrew Collier)8月份在分析信托贷款后曾写道:“真正有问题的领域是房地产。根据我们早先对信托公司章程的调查,逾90%的信托公司都投资于地方房地产及基建项目。考虑到这一点,房地产业成为第一波信托公司违约的主要发源地毫不让人意外。”
科利尔补充说,还有一个后续问题是信托贷款合同中“担保人和质押品构成的网络”。他发现只有32%的信托贷款曾说服借款人,将土地作为无法还款时的抵押品。
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China's property slump deepens as prices fall
New home prices fell across China in August, underscoring the severity of a property market slowdown that some analysts say presents one of the greatest threats to the global economy.
According to data from China's National Bureau of Statistics, new home prices declined in 68 of 70 cities surveyed in August, including the wealthy cities of Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou.
This compared to a price fall across 64 of the cities in July.
On average, prices fell 1.1 per cent in August from July, according to a Reuters calculation based on the data.
China's property market is slowing following a multi-year, investment driven boom. The downturn has not only threatened global miners' profits by contributing to a slump in the price of steelmaking material iron ore. A prolonged property slowdown may also exacerbate stress on Chinese banks and the unregulated "shadow" lenders, such as trust companies, which extend credit to higher-risk borrowers including real estate developers.
As Beyondbrics guest blogger Andrew Collier, of Orient Capital Research, wrote in August following his analysis of trust loans: “The real problem area is property. Given that over 90 per cent of Trusts are invested in local real estate and infrastructure projects (according to our earlier examination of Trust Prospectuses), it is not surprising that the dominant source of defaults in the first wave of Trusts has been in the property sector. ”
Mr Collier added a follow-on problem was the "web of guarantees and collateral" in trust loan contracts, having found that only 32 per cent of trust loans had persuaded borrowers to pledge land as security in cases wher they could not repay.
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