中国应带头打破气候谈判僵局

 
从历史角度看，中国官员们有理由期望已经高度工业化的西方带头解决气候变化问题。中国只占全球历史总排放量的11%，而西方已通过几个世纪的化石燃料使用实现了繁荣。
然而，无论中国乐不乐意，它都已成为未来全球气温和气候的主要决定因素。
联合国秘书长潘基文(Ban Ki-Moon)本周邀请世界各国领导人访问纽约，以期打破全球在应对气候变化问题上的谈判僵局。为此，我和我的同事们发布了最新的年度全球“碳排放预算”报告，希望能帮助大家厘清思路。你可以把“碳排放预算”想象成家庭开支预算——全世界所有国家去年花掉了多少预算（或者说向大气中排放了多少二氧化碳）？若要避免危险的气候变化，还有多少预算可以花？
我们的报告显示，若不以国内生产总值(GDP)、而以二氧化碳污染量来衡量，中国已是全球主要的工业国家之一，而不再是“发展中国家”。2013年，中国向大气中排放了100亿吨二氧化碳，占全球总排放量的近三分之一。
中国的二氧化碳排放量在2006年超过美国，自那以来，中国一直是全球最大的碳排放国。中国的碳排放量如今已超过美国和欧洲的总和。按现在的趋势发展下去，到2019年，中国的碳排放量将超过美国、欧洲和印度的总和。
中国的人均碳排放量如今已超过欧洲，是世界平均水平的1.45倍。即便是考虑到中国人均GDP水平仍然较低、以及中国有16%的碳排放源于为其他地区生产商品，也很难再继续坚持一个主张，即中国无须在打破气候谈判僵局中扮演主要角色。
基础设施建设是中国经济增长的主要驱动力，也是碳排放量迅速增长的主要原因。我们的统计显示，在中国和美国，来自现有基础设施的碳排放，会导致这两国的排放量超过它们在全球剩余人均碳排放配额中应占的比例。各国科学家和政策制定者——包括中国在内——普遍认同一点：全球气温上升，应以高出前工业时代的气温2摄氏度为限，而要将气温保持在这一限度内，就必须实施这样的配额。
如遵循这一配额，全球气温有66%的几率不超过上述2摄氏度的上限。而这一配额的总量，仅相当于迄今全球二氧化碳总排放量的三分之一。按照现在的排放速度，或许仅仅再有一代人的时间（30年），2摄氏度的上限就会被打破。
全球气候变化的代价，通常会由一些局部地区承担——那里会出现更多的洪涝灾害、台风和旱灾，对食物生产和人类健康构成挑战。同样，削减碳排放的好处也更多体现在局部地区，特别是就中国而言。
《柳叶刀》(Lancet)称，中国每年有逾100万人因严重的空气污染死亡。儿童和老年人面对的风险最大。如果中国能实现艰巨的减排目标，意味着空气污染将大幅缓解。
燃烧较便宜的低品位煤炭会造成更大的污染。2010年，中国燃煤排放了300万吨粉尘和2000万吨二氧化硫。这些精细粉尘会渗入人的肺部和血液中，被世界卫生组织(WHO)归为1类致癌物(Group 1 carcinogen)。
今年3月，中国总理李克强曾宣称：“我们要像对贫困宣战一样，坚决向污染宣战。”其实，设计良好的抗污措施，也能有效地缓解气候变化，反之亦然。
中国还可以起到表率作用，向世界展示如何减排。中国在提高能源使用效率方面取得的进步，超过了其他所有地区，但它进步的速度仍不够快。中国经济增长高度依赖燃煤，过去十年二氧化碳排放量翻了一番。目前，中国的目标是，在截至2015年的5年内，通过提高能源使用效率，将二氧化碳等价排放量减少30亿吨，这相当于美国2010年排放量的60%。不过，这一目标，与中国碳排放的规模、以及气候问题的紧迫性并不相称。
在国内外市场中推广和运用新技术方面，中国的力度也是西方无法比拟的。中国在可再生能源领域的投资领先全球，2012年占全球总投资的五分之一以上。2011年，中国可再生能源装机容量已是美国的两倍。中国风力发电机组和水力发电站的发电量为全世界最高。一旦世界各国在气候变化上达成具有约束力的协议，就立刻会为中国的低碳技术创造一个全球市场。
一个更为低碳的中国，长期而言能带来许多经济益处，同时能提高能源安全、水资源安全、食品安全，从而有益于人类自身的安全。反过来说，如果忽视全球和中国国内碳排放的增长，将威胁到人类对充足的食品和水的获取、人类的健康和幸福、以及中国的长期繁荣。
要想在纽约峰会上就气候变化问题达成国际协议、在全球推广中国的低碳技术和市场经验，中国必须担当起带头人的角色。各国领导人们在抗击气候变化上更加坚定、协调一致，就能将中国的发展引导至一条更清洁、更高效的道路。对中国来说，现在就该加速让经济增长摆脱对化石燃料的依赖。这会给中国带来立竿见影的好处，不论对现在的中国人，还是未来几代人而言。
作者科琳娜•勒凯雷(Corinne Le Quéré)是全球碳计划(Global Carbon Project)组织评估碳来源和去向方面的国际权威。她是东英吉利大学(University of East Anglia)气候科学与政策研究教授、廷德尔气候变化研究中心(Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research)主任、复旦大学(Fudan University)廷德尔中心(Tyndall Centre)定期访问人员。
作者关达博是一位气候变化经济学与政策研究方面的专家。他是联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change)《第三工作组评估报告：减缓气候变化》(Assessment on Mitigation)的主要作者之一。（更多资讯请关注中国进出口网） China’s politicians have legitimate historical reasons for expecting the industrialised West to take the lead on dealing with climate change. China is responsible for only 11% of past emissions while the West has flourished from centuries of burning fossil fuels.
However, China is now the main decider on the future global temperature and climate of the world, whether it likes it or not.
UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon this week invites World Leaders to New York to break the deadlock on negotiating what to do about the international challenge of climate change. This is why my colleagues and I have published our latest annual updat on the global carbon budget, to help focus minds. You can view the carbon budget like the housekeeping budget. How much carbon did all countries of the world last year spend, or emit to the atmosphere, and how much have we left to avoid dangerous climate change?
We show that measured as CO2 pollution instead of GDP, China is the leading global industrialist. China is not a developing country. In 2013, China put 10 billion tonnes of CO2 pollution into the atmosphere, almost one third of global emissions.
China has been the largest emitter of CO2 pollution since 2006 when it overtook the US. Emissions in China now exceed the combined emissions of the US and Europe. If trends continue along the current trajectory, by 2019 China’s emissions will overtake the US, Europe and India combined.
With China’s per capita emissions now larger than those of Europeans and 45% above the world average, it is difficult to argue against a leadership role for China in solving the international stalemate in climate negotiations, even when considering its lower GDP and the fact that 16% of Chinese emissions are from goods manufactured for elsewher.
Construction of infrastructure is the major driver of China’s rapid economic and emissions growth. Our global carbon budget shows that emissions from existing infrastructure will lead China and the US to exceed their fair access to the remaining CO2 emissions quota on a world per-capita basis. This quota is necessary to keep climate change below two degrees warming above pre-industrial temperatures, a limit that is widely supported by scientists and policymakers around the world, including in China.
The CO2 emissions quota, which gives the world a 66 per cent chance of remaining below 2 degrees is only about one third of that total emitted so far. At current emissions this means that there is just one generation (30 years) before the safeguards to a two-degree limit may be breached.
The global costs of climate change will be borne locally – more flooding and coastal storm surges, more droughts, strains on food production and health. The benefits of cutting carbon emissions are also regional and local, particularly in the case of China.
Over 1 million deaths can be attributed each year to severe air pollution in China, said the Lancet Medical Journal. Children and old people are most at risk. Achieving ambitious targets for cutting carbon emissions means less air pollution.
Burning cheaper low-grade coal is more polluting. Coal burning in 2010 produced 3 million tonnes of microscopic particulates and 20 million tonnes of sulphur dioxide emissions that penetrate deep into lungs and the blood stream. These fine particles are classified a Group 1 carcinogen by the cancer agency by the World Health Organization.
Premier Li Keqiang in March declared “war against pollution and fight it with the same determination we battled poverty”. Action to fight air pollution, if well designed, also fights climate change and vice versa.
China could also lead the rest of the world in showing the world how to slash emissions. China has made energy efficiency progress at a scale unequalled anywher else, but not fast enough. CO2 emissions in China doubled in the past ten years because of surging economic growth fuelled by coal. China currently aims to cut the equivalent of 3 billion tonnes of CO2 in efficiency improvements for the five years to 2015, the same as 60% of US emissions at 2010 levels, but this does not match the scale of Chinese emissions and the urgency of the climate problem.
China also deploys new technology and penetrates domestic and international markets at speeds unequalled in the West. It leads the world in renewable energy, investing more than one-fifth of the global total for 2012. In 2011, installed renewable capacity was already twice the US. China's wind turbines and hydropower stations are the world's most productive. A binding international agreement on climate change instantly creates for China a global market for its low carbon technologies.
There are many long term economic advantages to implementing a low carbon future in China, with co-benefits to energy security, water security, food security, and therefore human security. In turn, ignoring the rise in global and local carbon emissions threatens access to sufficient food and water, human health and wellbeing and the long-term prosperity of China.
The global leadership of China is crucial for an international agreement in New York on climate change and the deployment of its low carbon technologies and market knowhow is essential around the world. Strong collective political action on climate change could bring China’s development journey to a new path of cleaner air and energy efficiency. The race is on for China to decouple economic growth from fossil fuel burning. The benefits are immediate for current citizens and for generations not yet born.
Professor Corinne Le Quéré is an international authority in assessing carbon sources and sinks with the Global Carbon Project. She is Professor of Climate Science and Policy at the University of East Anglia, Director of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research and a regular visitor to the Tyndall Centre at Fudan University in Shanghai.
Professor Dabo Guan is an expert in climate change economicsand policy. He is a Lead Author of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Assessment on Mitigation and a winner of the Philip Leverhulme Prize for outstanding scholars at an international level. He is joining the University of East Anglia as Professor of Climate Change and Development.  （更多资讯请关注中国进出口网）